Skill and Reliability of Seasonal Forecasts for the Chinese Energy Sector
| Autor: | Rong Zhu, Julia F. Lockwood, Philip E. Bett, Chris Hewitt, Adam A. Scaife, Hazel Thornton, Nicola Golding, Chaofan Li, Peiqun Zhang |
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| Rok vydání: | 2017 |
| Předmět: |
Estimation
Atmospheric Science Mains electricity business.industry 020209 energy FOS: Physical sciences 02 engineering and technology Wind speed Renewable energy Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Offshore wind power Beijing Physics - Data Analysis Statistics and Probability Climatology Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph) 0202 electrical engineering electronic engineering information engineering Environmental science business China Data Analysis Statistics and Probability (physics.data-an) Solar power |
| Zdroj: | Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. 56:3099-3114 |
| ISSN: | 1558-8432 1558-8424 |
| Popis: | We assess the skill and reliability of forecasts of winter and summer temperature, wind speed and irradiance over China, using the GloSea5 seasonal forecast system. Skill in such forecasts is important for the future development of seasonal climate services for the energy sector, allowing better estimates of forthcoming demand and renewable electricity supply. We find that although overall the skill from the direct model output is patchy, some high-skill regions of interest to the energy sector can be identified. In particular, winter mean wind speed is skilfully forecast around the coast of the South China Sea, related to skilful forecasts of the El Ni\~no--Southern Oscillation. Such information could improve seasonal estimates of offshore wind power generation. Similarly, forecasts of winter irradiance have good skill in eastern central China, with possible use for solar power estimation. Much of China shows skill in summer temperatures, which derives from an upward trend. However, the region around Beijing retains this skill even when detrended. This temperature skill could be helpful in managing summer energy demand. While both the strengths and limitations of our results will need to be considered when developing seasonal climate services in the future, the outlook for such service development in China is promising. Comment: 14 pages, 9 figures; maps at reduced quality due to arXiv size limits. This is the original pre-print version as submitted to J. Appl. Met. Climatol., and prior to peer review. Please read the final, peer-reviewed article by following the DOI link below |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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