A scoring system to predict readmission of patients with acute pancreatitis to the hospital within thirty days of discharge
| Autor: | Bechien U. Wu, Peter A. Banks, Emily M. Webster, Darwin L. Conwell, Tom L. Whitlock, April S. Tignor, Kathryn Repas |
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| Rok vydání: | 2010 |
| Předmět: |
Adult
Diarrhea Male medicine.medical_specialty Vomiting Pain Logistic regression Patient Readmission Risk Assessment Cohort Studies Necrosis medicine Humans Pancreas Aged Retrospective Studies Models Statistical Hepatology Receiver operating characteristic business.industry Gastroenterology Retrospective cohort study Nausea Emergency department Middle Aged medicine.disease Patient Discharge Surgery Anti-Bacterial Agents Diet Logistic Models Massachusetts Pancreatitis ROC Curve Emergency medicine Cohort Multivariate Analysis Acute pancreatitis Female business Risk assessment Algorithms Cohort study |
| Zdroj: | Clinical gastroenterology and hepatology : the official clinical practice journal of the American Gastroenterological Association. 9(2) |
| ISSN: | 1542-7714 |
| Popis: | Reducing rapid readmission of patients after discharge could improve quality of treatment and reduce costs. Little is known about clinical predictors of early readmission for acute pancreatitis (AP). We developed a strategy to identify and stratify patients with AP at risk for readmission within 30 days of discharge.We derived and validated a model in a cohort of patients hospitalized with AP from June 2005-October 2009. Early readmission was defined as admission to the hospital or reevaluation in the emergency department within 30 days of discharge. The cohort was divided into a derivation cohort (admitted June 2005-December 2007, n = 248) and a validation cohort (admitted January 2008-October 2009, n = 198). A weighted scoring system was developed using logistic regression for the prediction of early readmission. Accuracy was assessed by area under the receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.Of the total patients, 21% (92/446) had early readmission. Multivariable analysis identified the following discharge characteristics as independent risk factors for early readmission: gastrointestinal symptoms, eating less than a solid diet, pancreatic necrosis, treatment with antibiotics, and pain (P.05). Weighted risk scores stratified patients into groups of low, moderate, and high risk for early readmission: 4%, 15%, and 87%, respectively, in the derivation cohort and 5%, 18%, and 68%, respectively, in the validation cohort. Area under the ROC curve demonstrated an accurate prediction (c-statistic = 0.83).We created a scoring system that accurately predicts which patients with AP have high and low risk of readmission within 30 days of discharge. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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