Alternative futures for global biological invasions
| Autor: | Helen E. Roy, Franz Essl, Lucas Rutting, Jonathan M. Jeschke, Ingolf Kühn, Reuben P. Keller, Guillaume Latombe, Bernd Lenzner, Núria Roura-Pascual, Marten Winter, Mark A. Burgman, Garry D. Peterson, Piero Genovesi, Stefan Dullinger, Andrew M. Liebhold, Hanno Seebens, Riccardo Scalera, Aníbal Pauchard, Betsy Von Holle, Melodie A. McGeoch, Sven Bacher, Joost Vervoort, Gregory M. Ruiz, Michael R. Springborn, Stelios Katsanevakis, Karl-Heinz Erb, Wolfgang Rabitsch, Philip E. Hulme, Michael Obersteiner, Brian Leung |
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| Přispěvatelé: | Environmental Governance, Commonwealth of Australia |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
0106 biological sciences
Health (social science) 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Sociology and Political Science Biosecurity Geography Planning and Development Future narratives Environmental scenarios 01 natural sciences Land use land-use change and forestry Global environmental change Green & Sustainable Science & Technology Uncategorized Global and Planetary Change Geography Policy and Law Ecology Introduced organisms Biodiversity SCENARIOS Management Impacts Science & Technology - Other Topics Biodiversity models Life Sciences & Biomedicine Espècies introduïdes Monitoring Process (engineering) Alien species Environmental Sciences & Ecology Management Monitoring Policy and Law 010603 evolutionary biology Ecology and Environment Health(social science) Scenario analysis Biological invasions Invasions biològiques Environmental planning 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Nature and Landscape Conservation Planning and Development Sustainable development Science & Technology Citizen journalism 500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik::570 Biowissenschaften Biologie::570 Biowissenschaften Biologie FRAMEWORK Biodiversitat Canvi mediambiental global Landscape ecology PLANT INVASIONS Futures contract Environmental Sciences |
| Zdroj: | Roura-Pascual, N, Leung, B, Rabitsch, W, Rutting, L, Vervoort, J, Bacher, S, Dullinger, S, Erb, K-H, Jeschke, J M, Katsanevakis, S, Kühn, I, Lenzner, B, Liebhold, A M, Obersteiner, M, Pauchard, A, Peterson, G D, Roy, H E, Seebens, H, Winter, M, Burgman, M A, Genovesi, P, Hulme, P E, Keller, R P, Latombe, G, McGeoch, M A, Ruiz, G M, Scalera, R, Springborn, M R, Von Holle, B & Essl, F 2021, ' Alternative futures for global biological invasions ', Sustainability Science, vol. 16, no. 5, pp. 1637-1650 . https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-021-00963-6 Sustainability Science, 2021, vol. 16, p. 1637-1650 Articles publicats (D-CCAA) DUGiDocs – Universitat de Girona instname Sustainability Science, 16(5), 1637. Springer Japan |
| ISSN: | 1862-4057 |
| Popis: | Scenario analysis has emerged as a key tool to analyze complex and uncertain future socio-ecological developments. However, currently existing global scenarios (narratives of how the world may develop) have neglected biological invasions, a major threat to biodiversity and the economy. Here, we use a novel participatory process to develop a diverse set of global biological invasion scenarios spanning a wide range of plausible global futures through to 2050. We adapted the widely used “two axes” scenario analysis approach to develop four families of four scenarios each, resulting in 16 scenarios that were later clustered into four contrasting sets of futures. Our analysis highlights that socioeconomic developments and technological innovation have the potential to shape biological invasions, in addition to well-known drivers, such as climate and human land use change and global trade. Our scenarios partially align with the shared socioeconomic pathways created by the climate change research community. Several factors that drive differences in biological invasions were underrepresented in the shared socioeconomic pathways; in particular, the implementation of biosecurity policies. We argue that including factors related to public environmental awareness and technological and trade development in global scenarios and models is essential to adequately consider biological invasions in global environmental assessments and thereby obtain a more integrative picture of future social–ecological developments This research was funded through the COST Action “Alien Challenge” [Grant number TD1209]; the 2017–2018 Belmont Forum and BiodivERsA joint call for research proposals, under the BiodivScen ERA-Net COFUND programme, and with the funding organisations AEI, FWF and BMBF [grant numbers AEI PCI2018-092966 (NRP)/FWF project 4011-B32 (FE, SD, GL, BeL)/BMBF projects 01LC1807A (HS) and 01LC1807B (JMJ)]; Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft [grant numbers InDyNet, JE 288/8-1; JE 288/9-1, 9-2 (JMJ)/via iDiv FZT 118, 202548816 (MW)]; OP RDE grant EVA4.0 [grant number CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000803] (AML); CONICYT [grant number AFB170008] (AP); UK-SCAPE programme, Natural Environment Research Council [grant number NE/R016429/1] (HER) |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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