Forecasting a Cyclical Downturn (Recession) in the US Economy Using a Mathematical Model of Hyman Minsky’s Theory of Financial Instability
| Autor: | Victor Antonovich Sadovnichii, A. A. Akaev |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
Inflation
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) speculative growth lending General Mathematics media_common.quotation_subject management of credit expansion and contraction 010102 general mathematics 01 natural sciences Recession mathematical model for forecasting a cyclical downturn (recession) in an unstable economy Financial instability 010305 fluids & plasmas Economy Control Processes 0103 physical sciences Minsky’s theory of financial instability 0101 mathematics economic dynamics Economic bubble media_common Mathematics |
| Zdroj: | Doklady Mathematics |
| ISSN: | 1531-8362 1064-5624 |
| DOI: | 10.1134/s1064562420050245 |
| Popis: | By using the US economy as an example, the paper shows how the COVID-19 pandemic has changed its short-term dynamics, causing a deep crisis recession in 2020 rather than the expected short-term and shallow recession in 2022 caused by the inflation of the financial bubble during the credit expansion that followed the financial and economic crisis of 2008–2009. To predict the latter scenario, which is natural for the US economy, the authors first developed a mathematical model based on Hyman Minsky’s theory of financial instability, which can serve to manage the processes of credit expansion and contraction in an unstable economy. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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