A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF THE BIVARIATE STATISTICAL METHODS AND THE ANALYTICAL HIERARCHICAL PROCESS FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF MASS MOVEMENT SUSCEPTIBILITY. A CASE STUDY: THE LM-116 ROAD – PERU

Autor: Vasquez, Jenny, Estrada, Miguel
Rok vydání: 2023
Předmět:
Zdroj: Rudarsko-geološko-naftni zbornik
Volume 38
Issue 1
ISSN: 1849-0409
0353-4529
Popis: It has been long observed that the Peruvian Central Highway (PE-22) and the LM-116 road are among the roads most affected by mass movements (MM) in Peru, frequently exposed to the occurrence of rockfalls, debris flow and landslides; both roads represent an important connection alternative between Lima with towns, cities and mining centers located in the Central Mountain Range of the Andes. In this research, firstly, a point density analysis was performed using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) considering the road network of all of Peru (composed of 144,499 km) and the inventory of geological hazards (GEOCATMIN) prepared by the Geological, Mining and Metallurgical Institute of Peru INGEMMET (2000-2018). Subsequently, the evaluation of the mass movement susceptibility on the LM-116 road has been carried out using free access data reported by Peruvian institutions (INGEMMET, MTC, MINAM) from which it was possible to elaborate thematic maps, including the most relevant factors in the occurrence of mass movements, like a slope, lithology, geomorphology, land use, drainage density, and the distance from tectonic structures. Finally, for the mass movement susceptibility analysis, three methods have been considered: the Analytic Hierarchical Process (AHP), the Statistical Index (Wi) and the Weights of Evidence (WoE). The results were validated using the area under the curve criteria (AUC). Both bivariate statistical methods (Wi and WoE) presented a prediction rate above 78%, with a higher rate for the WoE method. On the other hand, the semi-quantitative method (AHP) obtained values in the order of 69%. Therefore, it is concluded that the maps elaborated with the statistical methods presented a better approximation concerning the database of geological hazards reported by GEOCATMIN.
Peruanska središnja autocesta (PE-22) i cesta LM-116 već su duže pogođene pokretima na padinama u Peruu te su često izložene pojavi odrona stijene, tečenju debrita i klizištima. Obje ceste predstavljaju važnu alternativnu vezu između Lime, manjih gradova i rudarskih središta smještenih u središnjemu planinskom lancu Anda. U ovome istraživanju prvo je provedena analiza gustoće točaka korištenjem Geografskoga informacijskog sustava (GIS) uzimajući u obzir cestovnu mrežu cijeloga Perua (sastavljenu od 144 499 km) i inventara geoloških hazarda (GEOCATMIN) koji je pripremio Geološki, rudarski i metalurški institut Perua INGEMMET (2000. – 2018.). Naknadno je provedena procjena podložnosti na pokrete na padinama na cesti LM-116 korištenjem dostupnih podataka peruanskih institucija (INGEMMET, MTC, MINAM), iz kojih je bilo moguće izraditi tematske karte koje uključuju najrelevantnije preduvjete u pojavi pokreta na padinama, poput nagiba padina, litologije, geomorfologije, korištenja zemljišta, gustoće drenažne mreže i udaljenosti od tektonskih struktura. Na kraju, za analizu podložnosti na pokrete na padinama razmatrane su tri metode: analitički hijerarhijski proces (AHP), statistički indeks (Wi) i metoda Weights of Evidence (WoE). Rezultati su validirani korištenjem kriterija površine ispod krivulje (AUC). Obje bivarijatne statističke metode (Wi i WoE) pokazale su stopu predviđanja iznad 78 %, s višom stopom za WoE metodu. S druge strane, korištenje polukvantitativne (AHP) metode rezultiralo je vrijednošću od otprilike 69 %. S obzirom na navedeno zaključeno je da su karte izrađene statističkim metodama dale bolju aproksimaciju u odnosu na bazu podataka o geološkim hazardima koje je objavio GEOCATMIN.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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