Modeling the past and future activity of the Halleyids meteor showers
| Autor: | Auriane Egal, Margaret Campbell-Brown, Paul Wiegert, D. Vida, Peter Brown |
|---|---|
| Přispěvatelé: | Université de Bordeaux (UB), University of Western Ontario (UWO), Mayo Clinic, European Space Agency, European Space Agency (ESA) |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
Meteor (satellite)
comets: individual: 1P/Halley 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences FOS: Physical sciences Context (language use) Astrophysics Present day 01 natural sciences meteorites methods: numerical Jupiter 0103 physical sciences meteors meteoroids 010303 astronomy & astrophysics 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Earth and Planetary Astrophysics (astro-ph.EP) Physics Meteoroid Astronomy and Astrophysics Mean motion Meteorite 13. Climate action Space and Planetary Science [PHYS.ASTR]Physics [physics]/Astrophysics [astro-ph] Astrophysics - Earth and Planetary Astrophysics |
| Zdroj: | Astronomy and Astrophysics-A&A Astronomy and Astrophysics-A&A, EDP Sciences, 2020, 642, pp.A120. ⟨10.1051/0004-6361/202038953⟩ |
| ISSN: | 0004-6361 |
| DOI: | 10.1051/0004-6361/202038953⟩ |
| Popis: | We present a new numerical model of the eta-Aquariid and Orionid meteor showers. The model investigates the origin, variability and age of the eta-Aquariid and Orionid apparitions from 1985 to the present day, in order to forecast their activity over the next several decades. Through the numerical integration of millions of simulated meteoroids and a custom-made particle weighting scheme, we model the characteristics of every eta-Aquariid and Orionid apparition between 1985 and 2050. The modeled showers are calibrated using 35 years of meteor observations including the showers activity profiles and interannual variability. Our model reproduces the general characteristics of the present-day eta-Aquariids, and part of the Orionid activity. Simulations suggest that the age of the eta-Aquariids somewhat exceeds 5000 years, while a greater fraction of the Orionids are composed of older material. The 1:6 mean-motion resonance with Jupiter plays a major role in generating some (but not all) Halleyid stream outbursts. We find consistent evidence for a periodicity of 11.8 years in both the observations and modeled maximum meteor rates for the Orionids. A weaker evidence of a 10.7 year period in the peak activity for the eta-Aquariids needs to be investigated with future meteor observations. The extension of our model to future years predicts no significant Orionid outburst through 2050 and four significant eta-Aquariid outbursts in 2023, 2024, 2045 and 2046. This paper has been accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysics on August 1, 2020 |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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