Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability

Autor: Francesco Sera, Haidong Kan, Jan Kyselý, Julio Cruz, Baltazar Nunes, Yuming Guo, Ariana Zeka, Patricia Matus Correa, Paola Michelozzi, Masahiro Hashizume, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Niilo R.I. Ryti, Hans Orru, Aurelio Tobias, Jae-Young Lee, Nicolas Valdes Ortega, Carmen Iñiguez, Aleš Urban, Mathilde Pascal, Paulo Hilário Nascimento Saldiva, Christofer Åström, Dung Do Van, Yasushi Honda, Ho Kim, Martina S. Ragettli, Matteo Scortichini, Bing-Yu Chen, Fetemeh Mayvaneh, Yueliang Leon Guo, Tran Ngoc Dang, Antonella Zanobetti, Shanshan Li, Rosana Abrutzky, Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera, Michelle L. Bell, Shilu Tong, Ala Overcenco, Bertil Forsberg, Xerxes Seposo, Antonio Gasparrini, Patrick Goodman, Joel Schwartz, João Paulo Teixeira, Samuel David Osorio García, Eric Lavigne, Magali Hurtado, Ben Armstrong, Jouni J. K. Jaakkola, Ene Indermitte
Přispěvatelé: Tobías, Aurelio, Tobías, Aurelio [0000-0001-6428-6755]
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2019
Předmět:
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
vulnerability
Vulnerability
Hot temperature
projection
010501 environmental sciences
Global Health
01 natural sciences
Global Warming
Regional variation
Hot Temperature
Animal science
Elderly population
Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Global health
Humans
Climate change
Projection
Mortality
lcsh:Environmental sciences
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
General Environmental Science
lcsh:GE1-350
Excess mortality
Temperature
regional variation
Public Health
Global Health
Social Medicine and Epidemiology
Atmospheric temperature range
mortality
3. Good health
Folkhälsovetenskap
global hälsa
socialmedicin och epidemiologi
climate change
Avaliação do Impacte em Saúde
13. Climate action
Environmental science
Determinantes da Saúde e da Doença
Forecasting
Zdroj: ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL
r-FISABIO: Repositorio Institucional de Producción Científica
Fundación para el Fomento de la Investigación Sanitaria y Biomédica de la Comunitat Valenciana (FISABIO)
Digital.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
instname
Articles
Environment International, Vol 131, Iss, Pp-(2019)
r-FISABIO. Repositorio Institucional de Producción Científica
ISSN: 0160-4120
Popis: An increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100 ppm increase in global CO2 concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010–2099 is largest in Canada (1.16 °C/100 ppm) and Finland (1.14 °C/100 ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62 °C/100 ppm) and Argentina (0.63 °C/100 ppm). In addition, for each 1 °C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.34%p/°C) and the Philippines (8.18%p/°C), while it is decreased in Ireland (−0.92%p/°C) and Australia (−0.32%p/°C). To understand the regional variability in temperature increase and mortality, we performed a regression-based modeling. We observed that the projected temperature increase is highly correlated with daily temperature range at the location and vulnerability to temperature increase is affected by health expenditure, and proportions of obese and elderly population. © 2019
This study was supported by the Global Research Lab (# K21004000001-10A0500-00710 ) through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF), funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT (Information and Communication Technologies), and Future Planning. JL was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea as NRF-SNSF Researcher Exchange Program ( NRF-2018K2A9A1A06086694 ). AG was supported by Medical Research Council UK (Grant ID: MR/M022625/1 ) and Natural Environment Research Council UK (Grant ID: NE/R009384/1 ). JK and AU were supported by the Czech Science Foundation , project no. 18-22125S . HO and EI were supported by the Estonian Ministry of Education and Research (Grant no IUT34-17 ). JJKJ and NRIR were supported by the Research Council for Health, Academy of Finland (Grant no 266314 and 310372 ). MH and YH were supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency . AT was supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) Invitational Fellowships for Research in Japan ( S18149 ). Appendix A
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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