A five-compartment model of age-specific transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2

Autor: Ruo Yun Liu, Shi Xiong Hu, Yao Wang, Ze Yu Zhao, Tianmu Chen, Zhao Lei, Qing Qing Hu, Yuan Zhao Zhu, Yi Chen Chiang, Jing An Cui, Fang Xie, Meng Yang, Li Dong Gao, Li Luo, Ben Hua Zhao, Jia Rui, Ying Ying Su, Jia Li, Xing Chun Liu, Ling Yin, Qinglong Zhao, Shanshan Yu, Yanhua Su, Jing Wen Xu
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2020
Předmět:
Adult
Male
medicine.medical_specialty
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Adolescent
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)
030231 tropical medicine
Pneumonia
Viral
medicine.disease_cause
lcsh:Infectious and parasitic diseases
03 medical and health sciences
Betacoronavirus
Young Adult
Age-specific dynamics
0302 clinical medicine
Internal medicine
Epidemiology
medicine
Humans
lcsh:RC109-216
030212 general & internal medicine
Young adult
Pandemics
Coronavirus
Aged
Models
Statistical
business.industry
Transmissibility
SARS-CoV-2
lcsh:Public aspects of medicine
Public Health
Environmental and Occupational Health
Age Factors
COVID-19
lcsh:RA1-1270
General Medicine
Middle Aged
Age specific
Transmissibility (vibration)
Compartmental model
Infectious Diseases
Tropical medicine
Female
business
Coronavirus Infections
Research Article
Zdroj: Infectious Diseases of Poverty, Vol 9, Iss 1, Pp 1-15 (2020)
Infectious Diseases of Poverty
ISSN: 2049-9957
DOI: 10.1186/s40249-020-00735-x
Popis: Background The novel coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2, also called 2019-nCoV) causes different morbidity risks to individuals in different age groups. This study attempts to quantify the age-specific transmissibility using a mathematical model. Methods An epidemiological model with five compartments (susceptible–exposed–symptomatic–asymptomatic–recovered/removed [SEIAR]) was developed based on observed transmission features. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases were divided into four age groups: group 1, those ≤ 14 years old; group 2, those 15 to 44 years old; group 3, those 45 to 64 years old; and group 4, those ≥ 65 years old. The model was initially based on cases (including imported cases and secondary cases) collected in Hunan Province from January 5 to February 19, 2020. Another dataset, from Jilin Province, was used to test the model. Results The age-specific SEIAR model fitted the data well in each age group (P β43 = 7.71 × 10− 9; SAR43 = 3.86 × 10− 8), followed by group 3 to 4 (median: β34 = 3.07 × 10− 9; SAR34 = 1.53 × 10− 8), group 2 to 2 (median: β22 = 1.24 × 10− 9; SAR22 = 6.21 × 10− 9), and group 3 to 1 (median: β31 = 4.10 × 10− 10; SAR31 = 2.08 × 10− 9). The lowest transmissibility was from age group 3 to 3 (median: β33 = 1.64 × 10− 19; SAR33 = 8.19 × 10− 19), followed by group 4 to 4 (median: β44 = 3.66 × 10− 17; SAR44 = 1.83 × 10− 16), group 3 to 2 (median: β32 = 1.21 × 10− 16; SAR32 = 6.06 × 10− 16), and group 1 to 4 (median: β14 = 7.20 × 10− 14; SAR14 = 3.60 × 10− 13). In Jilin Province, the highest transmissibility occurred from age group 4 to 4 (median: β43 = 4.27 × 10− 8; SAR43 = 2.13 × 10− 7), followed by group 3 to 4 (median: β34 = 1.81 × 10− 8; SAR34 = 9.03 × 10− 8). Conclusions SARS-CoV-2 exhibits high transmissibility between middle-aged (45 to 64 years old) and elderly (≥ 65 years old) people. Children (≤ 14 years old) have very low susceptibility to COVID-19. This study will improve our understanding of the transmission feature of SARS-CoV-2 in different age groups and suggest the most prevention measures should be applied to middle-aged and elderly people.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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