The Exceptional 2018 European Water Seesaw Calls for Action on Adaptation

Autor: Andrej Ceglar, Thomas Chatzopoulos, Giacinto Manfron, Ignacio Perez-Dominguez, Ottmar Cronie, Gustavo Naumann, Frank Dentener, Raúl López-Lozano, Alan Belward, Maurits van den Berg, Jürg Luterbacher, Lorenzo Seguini, Matteo Zampieri, Bettina Baruth, Andrea Toreti
Přispěvatelé: Dokuchaev Soil Science Institute (SSI), Russian Academy of Agricultural Sciences, European Commission, Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen (JLU), Department of Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics, Umeå University, Environnement Méditerranéen et Modélisation des Agro-Hydrosystèmes (EMMAH), Avignon Université (AU)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Toreti, Andrea
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2019
Předmět:
paléoclimatologie
Climate Research
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
climate projections
prévision climatique
0207 environmental engineering
Growing season
02 engineering and technology
drought
modèle de simulation
01 natural sciences
Klimatforskning
purl.org/becyt/ford/1 [https]
purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5 [https]
stratégie d'amelioration
Seesaw molecular geometry
climat extrème
lcsh:QH540-549.5
agriculture
climate extremes
Europe
water seesaw
Spring (hydrology)
Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)
Precipitation
Agricultural productivity
020701 environmental engineering
lcsh:Environmental sciences
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
General Environmental Science
sécheresse
2. Zero hunger
lcsh:GE1-350
geography
changement climatique
geography.geographical_feature_category
business.industry
Environmental and Society
[SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society
Action (philosophy)
13. Climate action
Agriculture
Climatology
Environmental science
lcsh:Ecology
Adaptation
Environnement et Société
business
Zdroj: Earth's Future
Earth's Future, American Geophysical Union, 2019, 12 p. ⟨10.1029/2019EF001170⟩
Earth's Future, 12 p.. (2019)
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
instacron:CONICET
Earth's Future, Vol 7, Iss 6, Pp 652-663 (2019)
ISSN: 2328-4277
DOI: 10.1029/2019EF001170⟩
Popis: Temperature and precipitation are the most important factors responsible for agricultural productivity variations. In 2018 spring/summer growing season, Europe experienced concurrent anomalies of both. Drought conditions in central and northern Europe caused yield reductions up to 50% for the main crops, yet wet conditions in southern Europe saw yield gains up to 34%, both with respect to the previous 5-year mean. Based on the analysis of documentary and natural proxy-based seasonal paleoclimate reconstructions for the past half millennium, we show that the 2018 combination of climatic anomalies in Europe was unique. The water seesaw, a marked dipole of negative water anomalies in central Europe and positive ones in southern Europe, distinguished 2018 from the five previous similar droughts since 1976. Model simulations reproduce the 2018 European water seesaw in only 4 years out of 875 years in historical runs and projections. Future projections under the RCP8.5 scenario show that 2018-like temperature and rainfall conditions, favorable to crop growth, will occur less frequent in southern Europe. In contrast, in central Europe high-end emission scenario climate projections show that droughts as intense as 2018 could become a common occurrence as early as 2043. While integrated European and global agricultural markets limited agro-economic shocks caused by 2018's extremes, there is an urgent need for adaptation strategies for European agriculture to consider futures without the benefits of any water seesaw. Fil: Toreti, Andrea. Joint Research Centre; Italia Fil: Belward, Alan. Joint Research Centre; Italia Fil: Perez Dominguez, Ignacio. Joint Research Centre; Italia Fil: Naumann, Gustavo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina Fil: Luterbacher, Jürg. Justus Liebig Universitat Giessen; Alemania Fil: Cronie, Ottmar. Universidad de Umea; Suecia Fil: Seguini, Lorenzo. Joint Research Centre; Italia Fil: Manfron, Giacinto. Joint Research Centre; Italia Fil: Lopez Lozano, Raul. Joint Research Centre; Italia Fil: Baruth, Bettina. Joint Research Centre; Italia Fil: van den Berg, Maurits. Joint Research Centre; Italia Fil: Dentener, Frank. Joint Research Centre; Italia Fil: Ceglar, Andrej. Joint Research Centre; Italia Fil: Chatzopoulos, Thomas. Joint Research Centre; Italia Fil: Zampieri, Matteo. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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