IBD prevalence in Lothian, Scotland, derived by capture–recapture methodology
| Autor: | Colin L. Noble, Nikolas Plevris, Ian D. Arnott, Philip Jenkinson, David C. Wilson, Cathy Bisset, C Burgess, Charlie W. Lees, Shahida Din, Gareth-Rhys Jones, Paul Henderson, Gwo-Tzer Ho, James Fulforth, Kathryn Kirkwood, Alan G. Shand, Mathew Lyons |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: |
Crohn’s disease
Adult Male medicine.medical_specialty Adolescent Prevalence Disease Secondary care Mark and recapture 03 medical and health sciences Young Adult 0302 clinical medicine Age Distribution Electronic health record Epidemiology Medicine Humans 030212 general & internal medicine Registries Sex Distribution Child ulcerative colitis Aged Aged 80 and over business.industry Incidence Inflammatory Bowel Disease Gastroenterology Infant Newborn Infant Middle Aged Inflammatory Bowel Diseases 3. Good health Scotland Child Preschool Cohort 030211 gastroenterology & hepatology epidemiology Female business True positive rate Demography |
| Zdroj: | Gut Jones, G-R, Lyons, M, Plevris, N, Jenkinson, P W, Bisset, C, Burgess, C, Din, S, Fulforth, J, Henderson, P, Ho, G-T, Kirkwood, K, Noble, C, Shand, A G, Wilson, D C, Arnott, I DR & Lees, C W 2019, ' IBD prevalence in Lothian, Scotland, derived by capture–recapture methodology ', Gut, vol. 68, no. 11, pp. 1953-1960 . https://doi.org/10.1136/gutjnl-2019-318936 |
| ISSN: | 1468-3288 0017-5749 |
| DOI: | 10.1136/gutjnl-2019-318936 |
| Popis: | ObjectiveIBD prevalence is estimated to be rising, but no detailed, recent UK data are available. The last reported prevalence estimate in the UK was 0.40% in 2003. We aimed to establish the current, and project future, prevalence in Lothian, Scotland.DesignWe conducted an all-age multiparameter search strategy using inpatient IBD international classification of disease (ICD-10) coding (K50/51)(1997–2018), IBD pathology coding (1990–2018), primary and secondary care prescribing data (2009–2018) and a paediatric registry, (1997–2018) to identify ‘possible’ IBD cases up to 31/08/2018. Diagnoses were manually confirmed through electronic health record review as per Lennard-Jones/Porto criteria. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) regression was applied to forecast prevalence to 01/08/2028.ResultsIn total, 24 601 possible IBD cases were identified of which 10 499 were true positives. The point prevalence for IBD in Lothian on 31/08/2018 was 784/100 000 (UC 432/100 000, Crohn’s disease 284/100 000 and IBD unclassified (IBDU) 68/100 000). Capture–recapture methods identified an additional 427 ‘missed’ cases (95% CI 383 to 477) resulting in a ‘true’ prevalence of 832/100 000 (95% CI 827 to 837).Prevalence increased by 4.3% per year between 2008 and 2018 (95% CI +3.7 to +4.9%, p80 years of age.ConclusionsWe report a rigorously validated IBD cohort with all-age point prevalence on 31/08/2018 of 1 in 125, one of the highest worldwide. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
|