Long-term safety assessment of large-scale arch dam based on non-probabilistic reliability analysis
| Autor: | Erfeng Zhao, Chengqing Wu |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
Computer simulation
Scale (ratio) Computer science business.industry 0905 Civil Engineering 1202 Building Probabilistic logic Statistical model Building and Construction Structural engineering Arch dam Architecture Long term safety Arch Safety Risk Reliability and Quality business Reliability (statistics) Civil and Structural Engineering |
| Zdroj: | Structures. 32:298-312 |
| ISSN: | 2352-0124 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.istruc.2021.03.012 |
| Popis: | Long-term service status of a large-scale arch dam is affected by variations of loads and material properties with randomness and fuzziness. This study aims to resolve the problems of a variety of uncertain variables that coexist in the reliability assessment of arch dams. Firstly, a time-varying non-probabilistic reliability (N-PR) solution method of the arch dams is proposed based on the convex set model. Subsequently, non-probabilistic target reliability indexes are put forward according to the defined probabilistic reliability indexes during long-term operation of the arch dams. Afterwards, a fuzzy prediction index is formulated based on the mixed statistical model and the Info-gap model under the most unfavorable reservoir water depth, so as to timely find defects and avoid the potential failure of the arch dams. Numerical simulation on the Jinping I arch dam is conducted to validate the proposed methods. The possible failure modes and the long-term N-PR of the world’s highest arch dam is appraised, and the fuzzy prediction indexes are concluded. Research results can provide a feasible way for large-scale arch dam reliability and safety assessment. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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