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SUMMARY Land transformations in the catchments of Lake St Lucia have altered the hydrology of the system and increased management is now needed to counteract these changes. There are several management options available, but prior to implementing them we must be able to predict their outcomes. There is an existing hydrological model, but up until now we have been unable to predict biological responses. The model we have developed to do this is rule-based and can access knowledge not available to conventional equation-driven models. The ecosystem is divided into discrete states, the building blocks of the model, which are manipulated by the rules. Uses of the model include the testing of management alternatives, and the synthesis of research findings. The resolution of the model matches that are required for management, and the model can be easily updated as more knowledge becomes available. |
