Emergent constraint on crop yield response to warmer temperature from field experiments

Autor: Joshua Elliott, Chuang Zhao, Christoph Müller, S. L. Piao, Senthold Asseng, Ivan A. Janssens, Xuhui Wang, Philippe Ciais, Laurent Li, Yao Huang, Josep Peñuelas, Tao Li, Chenzhi Wang
Přispěvatelé: Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University [Beijing], Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), UNIVERSITY OF ANTWERP DEPARTMENT OF BIOLOGY WILRIJK BEL, Partenaires IRSTEA, Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals, Univ. Autònoma de Barcelona (CREAF), université de Barcelone, Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CEAB-CSIC, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), University of Chicago Computation Institute, University of Chicago, Institute of Botany of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (IBCAS), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research Chinese Academy of Sciences P.O. Box 2871, 18 Shuang Qing Road Beijing 100085, China (J.L.-Z.) (INSTITUTE OF TIBETAN PLATEAU RESEARCH), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, 2019YFA0607300 Chinese Academy of Sciences, CAS, This study was supported by the National Key Research & Development Program of China (2019YFA0607300) and Strategic Priority Research Program (A) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (grant no. XDA20050101)., Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL)
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2020
Předmět:
Zdroj: Nature Sustainability
Nature Sustainability, 2020, 3 (11), pp.908-916. ⟨10.1038/s41893-020-0569-7⟩
Nature sustainability
ISSN: 2398-9629
Popis: Responses of global crop yields to warmer temperatures are fundamental to sustainable development under climate change but remain uncertain. Here, we combined a global dataset of field warming experiments (48 sites) for wheat, maize, rice and soybean with gridded global crop models to produce field-data-constrained estimates on responses of crop yield to changes in temperature (S-T) with the emergent-constraint approach. Our constrained estimates show with >95% probability that warmer temperatures would reduce yields for maize (-7.1 +/- 2.8% K-1), rice (-5.6 +/- 2.0% K-1) and soybean (-10.6 +/- 5.8% K-1). For wheat,S(T)was 89% likely to be negative (-2.9 +/- 2.3% K-1). Uncertainties associated with modelledS(T)were reduced by 12-54% for the four crops but data constraints do not allow for further disentanglingS(T)of different crop types. A key implication for impact assessments after the Paris Agreement is that direct warming impacts alone will reduce major crop yields by 3-13% under 2 K global warming without considering CO(2)fertilization effects and adaptations. Even if warming was limited to 1.5 K, all major producing countries would still face notable warming-induced yield reduction. This yield loss could be partially offset by projected benefits from elevated CO2, whose magnitude remains uncertain, and highlights the challenge to compensate it by autonomous adaptation. Global responses of crops to warmer temperatures will affect agricultural sustainability. This study of maize, rice, soybean and wheat projects yield reductions of 3-13% under 2 degrees C warming.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
Externí odkaz: