Overdiagnosis in early detection programs
| Autor: | Ori Davidov, Marvin Zelen |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2004 |
| Předmět: |
Male
Statistics and Probability medicine.medical_specialty Early detection Disease Clinical onset Predictive Value of Tests medicine Humans Mass Screening False Positive Reactions Overdiagnosis Intensive care medicine Aged Aged 80 and over Gynecology Models Statistical business.industry Prostatic Neoplasms Numerical Analysis Computer-Assisted General Medicine Middle Aged Prostate-Specific Antigen Early Diagnosis Statistics Probability and Uncertainty business |
| Zdroj: | Biostatistics. 5:603-613 |
| ISSN: | 1468-4357 1465-4644 |
| DOI: | 10.1093/biostatistics/kxh012 |
| Popis: | SUMMARY Overdiagnosis refers to the situation where a screening exam detects a disease that would have otherwise been undetected in a person’s lifetime. The disease would have not have been diagnosed because the individual would have died of other causes prior to its clinical onset. Although the probability of overdiagnosis is an important quantity for understanding early detection programs it has not been rigorously studied. We analyze an idealized early detection program and derive the mathematical expression for the probability of overdiagnosis. The results are studied numerically for prostate cancer and applied to a variety of screening schedules. Our investigation indicates that the probability of overdiagnosis is remarkably high. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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