Spatiotemporal analysis of rabies in cattle in central Mexico
Autor: | Diana Paulina Nieves-Martínez, Sara González-Ruíz, José Quintín Cuador-Gil, Germinal Jorge Cantó-Alarcón, Elizabeth Loza-Rubio, Isabel Bárcenas-Reyes, Feliciano Milián-Suazo |
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Jazyk: | angličtina |
Rok vydání: | 2019 |
Předmět: |
Health (social science)
Geographic information system Correlation coefficient Rabies Epidemiology Rain Geography Planning and Development Medicine (miscellaneous) Cattle Diseases lcsh:G1-922 Disease Vectors Desmodus rotundus Spatial distribution Disease Outbreaks Spatio-Temporal Analysis Kriging Chiroptera Statistics medicine Animals Precipitation Mexico biology business.industry Health Policy Temperature Spatial epidemiology medicine.disease biology.organism_classification Geography Geographic Information Systems Cattle business lcsh:Geography (General) |
Zdroj: | Geospatial Health, Vol 14, Iss 2 (2019) |
ISSN: | 1970-7096 1827-1987 |
Popis: | Spatial epidemiology of bat-transmitted rabies in cattle has been limited to spatial distribution of cases, an approach that does not identify hidden patterns and the spread resulting in outbreaks in endemic and susceptible areas. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between the three variables average annual maximum, annual minimum temperature and precipitation in the region on the one hand, and the spatial distribution of cases on the other, using geographic information systems and co-Kriging considering that these environmental variables condition the existence of the rabies vector Desmodus rotundus. A stationary behaviour between the primary and the secondary variables was verified by basic statistics and moving window statistics. The directions of greater and lesser spatial continuity were determined by experimental cross-semivariograms. It was found that the highest risk for bovine paralytic rabies occurs in areas known as La Huasteca Potosina and La Sierra Gorda that are characterized by a maximum temperature of 29.5 °C, a minimum temperature of 16.5 °C and precipitation of 1200 mm. A risk estimation map was obtained for the presence of rabies with a determination coefficient greater than 95%, and a correlation coefficient greater than 0.95. Our conclusion is that ordinary co- Kriging provides a better estimation of risk and spatial distribution of rabies than simple Kriging, making this the method recommended for risk estimation and regional distribution of rabies. |
Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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