A Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis of mortality rates in Spain: application to the COVID-19 2020 outbreak

Autor: Angelo Santana, Pedro Saavedra, José-Miguel Pacheco, Luis Bello, Esther Sanjuán
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2021
Předmět:
Adult
Male
medicine.medical_specialty
Epidemiology
Population
Computer applications to medicine. Medical informatics
R858-859.7
Disease
01 natural sciences
Models
Biological
Disease Outbreaks
010104 statistics & probability
03 medical and health sciences
Bayes' theorem
0302 clinical medicine
Spatio-Temporal Analysis
Cause of Death
medicine
Humans
030212 general & internal medicine
Excess of deaths
0101 mathematics
Mortality
education
Pandemics
Cause of death
Aged
Aged
80 and over
education.field_of_study
business.industry
SARS-CoV-2
Mortality rate
Public health
Research
Public Health
Environmental and Occupational Health
Outbreak
COVID-19
Bayes Theorem
Spatio-temporal models
Integrated nested Laplace approximation
Middle Aged
Spain
Female
Standardized mortality ratios
Public aspects of medicine
RA1-1270
business
Demography
Zdroj: Population Health Metrics, Vol 19, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2021)
Population Health Metrics
ISSN: 1478-7954
Popis: Background The number of deaths attributable to COVID-19 in Spain has been highly controversial since it is problematic to tell apart deaths having COVID as the main cause from those provoked by the aggravation by the viral infection of other underlying health problems. In addition, overburdening of health system led to an increase in mortality due to the scarcity of adequate medical care, at the same time confinement measures could have contributed to the decrease in mortality from certain causes. Our aim is to compare the number of deaths observed in 2020 with the projection for the same period obtained from a sequence of previous years. Thus, this computed mortality excess could be considered as the real impact of the COVID-19 on the mortality rates. Methods The population was split into four age groups, namely: (< 50; 50–64; 65–74; 75 and over). For each one, a projection of the death numbers for the year 2020, based on the interval 2008–2020, was estimated using a Bayesian spatio-temporal model. In each one, spatial, sex, and year effects were included. In addition, a specific effect of the year 2020 was added ("outbreak"). Finally, the excess deaths in year 2020 were estimated as the count of observed deaths minus those projected. Results The projected death number for 2020 was 426,970 people, the actual count being 499,104; thus, the total excess of deaths was 72,134. However, this increase was very unequally distributed over the Spanish regions. Conclusion Bayesian spatio-temporal models have proved to be a useful tool for estimating the impact of COVID-19 on mortality in Spain in 2020, making it possible to assess how the disease has affected different age groups accounting for effects of sex, spatial variation between regions and time trend over the last few years.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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