How to identify patients who are less likely to have metachronous neoplasms after a colon cancer: a predictive model
| Autor: | Michele Scagliarini, Giulia Dal Piaz, Mario De Bellis, Cesare Hassan, Veronica Smania, Marina La Marca, S. Piccirelli, Franco Bazzoli, Silvia Paggi, Paola Cesaro, Luigi Ricciardiello, Liboria Laterza, Rocco Maurizio Zagari, P. Marone, Franco Radaelli, Lorenzo Fuccio, Alessandro Repici, Alessandro Mussetto, Leonardo Frazzoni, Fabiana Tatangelo, Laura Petrella, Fabio Fabbian, Cristiano Spada, Cristina Trovato |
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| Přispěvatelé: | Leonardo Frazzoni, Liboria Laterza, Alessandro Mussetto, Rocco Maurizio Zagari, Cristina Trovato, Mario De Bellis, Silvia Paggi, Stefania Piccirelli, Luigi Ricciardiello, Paola Cesaro, Cristiano Spada, Giulia Dal Piaz, Marina La Marca, Fabio Fabbian, Laura Petrella, Veronica Smania, Pietro Marone, Fabiana Tatangelo, Franco Bazzoli, Franco Radaelli, Alessandro Repici, Cesare Hassan, Michele Scagliarini, Lorenzo Fuccio |
| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: |
medicine.medical_specialty
Colorectal cancer Colonoscopy 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine Risk Factors Epidemiology of cancer medicine Humans Prospective Studies Retrospective Studies Cancer staging Splenic flexure Surveillance medicine.diagnostic_test business.industry Risk Factor Gastroenterology Cancer Neoplasms Second Primary Retrospective cohort study medicine.disease Colon cancer Predictive model 030220 oncology & carcinogenesis Colonic Neoplasms 030211 gastroenterology & hepatology Radiology Colorectal Neoplasms business Index Colonoscopy |
| Zdroj: | Endoscopy. 52:220-226 |
| ISSN: | 1438-8812 0013-726X |
| DOI: | 10.1055/a-1041-2945 |
| Popis: | Background Patients with prior colon cancer have increased risk of metachronous colorectal neoplasms; therefore, endoscopic surveillance is indicated. Current recommendations are not risk-stratified. We investigated predictive factors for colorectal neoplasms to build a model to spare colonoscopies for low-risk patients. Methods This was a multicenter, retrospective study including patients who underwent surgery for colon cancer in 2001 – 2008 (derivation cohort) and 2009 – 2013 (validation cohort). A predictive model for neoplasm occurrence at second surveillance colonoscopy was developed and validated. Results 421 and 203 patients were included in derivation and validation cohort, respectively. At second surveillance colonoscopy, 112 (26.6 %) and 55 (27.1 %) patients had metachronous neoplasms in derivation and validation groups; three cancers were detected in the latter. History of left-sided colon cancer (OR 1.64, 95 %CI 1.02 – 2.64), ≥ 1 advanced adenoma at index colonoscopy (OR 1.90, 95 %CI 1.05 – 3.43), and ≥ 1 adenoma at first surveillance colonoscopy (OR 2.06, 95 %CI 1.29 – 3.27) were independently predictive of metachronous colorectal neoplasms at second surveillance colonoscopy. For patients without such risk factors, diagnostic accuracy parameters were: 89.3 % (95 %CI 82.0 %-94.3 %) and 78.2 % (95 %CI 65.0 %-88.2 %) sensitivity, and 28.5 % (95 %CI 23.5 %-33.9 %) and 33.8 % (95 %CI 26.2 %-42.0 %) specificity in derivation and validation group, respectively. No cancer would be missed. Conclusions Patients with prior left-sided colon cancer or ≥ 1 advanced adenoma at index colonoscopy or ≥ 1 adenoma at first surveillance colonoscopy had a significantly higher risk of neoplasms at second surveillance colonoscopy; patients without such factors had much lower risk and could safely skip the second surveillance colonoscopy. A prospective, multicenter validation study is needed. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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