Rare event simulation for dynamic fault trees
| Autor: | Pieter-Tjerk de Boer, Daniel Reijsbergen, Enno Jozef Johannes Ruijters, Mariëlle Stoelinga |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: |
Fault tree analysis
021110 strategic defence & security studies 021103 operations research Exploit Computer science Reliability (computer networking) Monte Carlo method 0211 other engineering and technologies Parameterized complexity 02 engineering and technology Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering 13. Climate action Rare events Dependability Safety Risk Reliability and Quality Algorithm Importance sampling |
| Zdroj: | Reliability engineering & system safety, 186, 220-231. Elsevier |
| ISSN: | 0951-8320 |
| Popis: | Fault trees (FT) are a popular industrial method for reliability engineering, for which Monte Carlo simulation is an important technique to estimate common dependability metrics, such as the system reliability and availability. A severe drawback of Monte Carlo simulation is that the number of simulations required to obtain accurate estimations grows extremely large in the presence of rare events, i.e., events whose probability of occurrence is very low, which typically holds for failures in highly reliable systems. This paper presents a novel method for rare event simulation of dynamic fault trees with complex repairs that requires only a modest number of simulations, while retaining statistically justified confidence intervals. Our method exploits the importance sampling technique for rare event simulation, together with a compositional state space generation method for dynamic fault trees. We demonstrate our approach using three parameterized sets of case studies, showing that our method can handle fault trees that could not be evaluated with either existing analytical techniques using stochastic model checking, nor with standard simulation techniques. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
|
Full Text from ScienceDirect