Zika virus disease, microcephaly and Guillain-Barré syndrome in Colombia: epidemiological situation during 21 months of the Zika virus outbreak, 2015–2017
| Autor: | Nelson Méndez, Salim Mattar, Misael Oviedo-Pastrana, Germán Arrieta, Isaac Caicedo-Castro |
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| Rok vydání: | 2017 |
| Předmět: |
0301 basic medicine
Zika virus disease medicine.medical_specialty Pediatrics Microcephaly Epidemiology Population Education Zika virus 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine Kernel ridge regression medicine 030212 general & internal medicine education Public health professional education.field_of_study Infectious diseases vectors Guillain-Barre syndrome biology business.industry lcsh:Public aspects of medicine Research Public Health Environmental and Occupational Health Outbreak lcsh:RA1-1270 medicine.disease biology.organism_classification Nervous system congenital abnormalities Culicidae 030104 developmental biology Morbidity business |
| Zdroj: | Archives of Public Health Archives of Public Health, Vol 75, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2017) |
| ISSN: | 2049-3258 |
| DOI: | 10.1186/s13690-017-0233-5 |
| Popis: | Background The Zika virus disease (ZVD) has had a huge impact on public health in Colombia for the numbers of people affected and the presentation of Guillain-Barre syndrome (GBS) and microcephaly cases associated to ZVD. Methods A retrospective descriptive study was carried out, we analyze the epidemiological situation of ZVD and its association with microcephaly and GBS during a 21-month period, from October 2015 to June 2017. The variables studied were: (i) ZVD cases, (ii) ZVD cases in pregnant women, (iii) laboratory-confirmed ZVD in pregnant women, (iv) ZVD cases associated with microcephaly, (v) laboratory-confirmed ZVD associated with microcephaly, and (vi) ZVD associated to GBS cases. Average number of cases, attack rates (AR) and proportions were also calculated. The studied variables were plotted by epidemiological weeks and months. The distribution of ZVD cases in Colombia was mapped across the time using Kernel density estimator and QGIS software; we adopted Kernel Ridge Regression (KRR) and the Gaussian Kernel to estimate the number of Guillain Barre cases given the number of ZVD cases. Results One hundred eight thousand eighty-seven ZVD cases had been reported in Colombia, including 19,963 (18.5%) in pregnant women, 710 (0.66%) associated with microcephaly (AR, 4.87 cases per 10,000 live births) and 453 (0.42%) ZVD associated to GBS cases (AR, 41.9 GBS cases per 10,000 ZVD cases). It appears the cases of GBS increased in parallel with the cases of ZVD, cases of microcephaly appeared 5 months after recognition of the outbreak. The kernel density map shows that throughout the study period, the states most affected by the Zika outbreak in Colombia were mainly San Andrés and Providencia islands, Casanare, Norte de Santander, Arauca and Huila. The KRR shows that there is no proportional relationship between the number of GBS and ZVD cases. During the cross validation, the RMSE achieved for the second order polynomial kernel, the linear kernel, the sigmoid kernel, and the Gaussian kernel are 9.15, 9.2, 10.7, and 7.2 respectively. Conclusions This study updates the epidemiological analysis of the ZVD situation in Colombia describes the geographical distribution of ZVD and shows the functional relationship between ZVD cases and GBS. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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