Climate Change and Heat-Related Excess Mortality in the Eastern USA
| Autor: | Monica Harkey, Tracey Holloway, Vijay S. Limaye, Jonathan A. Patz, Jason Vargo |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2018 |
| Předmět: |
medicine.medical_specialty
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Infrared Rays Climate Change Health Toxicology and Mutagenesis Population Climate change 01 natural sciences Article 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine Cause of Death Environmental health medicine Humans 030212 general & internal medicine education 0105 earth and related environmental sciences education.field_of_study Ecology Public health United States Animal ecology Weather Research and Forecasting Model Environmental science Climate model Health Impact Assessment Public Health Health impact assessment Forecasting Downscaling |
| Zdroj: | EcoHealth. 15:485-496 |
| ISSN: | 1612-9210 1612-9202 |
| Popis: | Climate change will increase extreme heat related health risks. To quantify the health impacts of mid-century climate change, we assess heat-related excess mortality across the eastern United States. Health risks are estimated using the US Environmental Protection Agency’s Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP). Mid-century temperature estimates, downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, are compared to 2007 temperatures at 36 km and 12 km resolutions. Models indicate the average apparent and actual summer temperatures rise by 4.5° and 3.3 °C, respectively. Warmer average apparent temperatures could cause 11,562 additional annual deaths (95% Confidence Interval, CI: 2,641–20,095) due to cardiovascular stress in the population aged 65 years and above, while higher minimum temperatures could cause 8,767 (95% CI: 5,030–12,475) additional deaths each year. Modeled future climate data available at both coarse (36 km) and fine (12 km) resolutions predict significant human health impacts from warmer climates. The findings suggest that currently available information on future climates is sufficient to guide regional planning for the protection of public health. Higher resolution climate and demographic data are still needed to inform more targeted interventions. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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