A conceptual framework for cross-border impacts of climate change

Autor: Magnus Benzie, Stefan Fronzek, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Emanuele Campiglio, Timothy R. Carter, Mikael Hildén, Henrik Carlsen, Chris West
Přispěvatelé: Carter, Timothy R., Benzie, Magnu, Campiglio, Emanuele, Carlsen, Henrik, Fronzek, Stefan, Hildén, Mikael, Reyer, Christopher P.O., West, Chris
Rok vydání: 2021
Předmět:
Arctic sea ice decline
Climate trigger
Risk propagation
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Complex system
Geography
Planning and Development
Risk propagation Adaptation Response Climate trigger Cascading impacts Complex system
010501 environmental sciences
01 natural sciences
11. Sustainability
Impact dynamics
Global and Planetary Change
Milieubeleid
Ecology
Environmental resource management
502018 Makroökonomie
Response
satovahingot
Cascading impacts
Environmental Policy
Geography
201128 Nachhaltiges Bauen
rajanylitykset
Climate change
padot
401905 Nachwachsende Rohstoffe
Management
Monitoring
Policy and Law
ilmastovaikutukset
tapaustutkimus
401905 Renewable resources
Adaptation
Adaptation (computer science)
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
WIMEK
502042 Umweltökonomie
502018 Macroeconomics
business.industry
jää
kansainvälinen yhteistyö
502042 Environmental economics
sulaminen
tulvat
15. Life on land
ilmastonmuutokset
Conceptual framework
13. Climate action
201128 Sustainable building
viljely
soijapavut
business
vesivoimalat
Zdroj: Global Environmental Change
Global Environmental Change 69 (2021)
Global Environmental Change, 69
ISSN: 0959-3780
1872-9495
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102307
Popis: Highlights • We define cross-border climate impacts and identify challenges they may pose. • We develop a conceptual framework to help understand them and their dynamics. • The framework can organise and offer useful insights into past and projected cases. • To demonstrate we use examples of the 2011 Thai floods and Arctic sea ice decline. • The complexity of impact dynamics suggests a need for diverse adaptation responses. Climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability studies tend to confine their attention to impacts and responses within the same geographical region. However, this approach ignores cross-border climate change impacts that occur remotely from the location of their initial impact and that may severely disrupt societies and livelihoods. We propose a conceptual framework and accompanying nomenclature for describing and analysing such cross-border impacts. The conceptual framework distinguishes an initial impact that is caused by a climate trigger within a specific region. Downstream consequences of that impact propagate through an impact transmission system while adaptation responses to deal with the impact propagate through a response transmission system. A key to understanding cross-border impacts and responses is a recognition of different types of climate triggers, categories of cross-border impacts, the scales and dynamics of impact transmission, the targets and dynamics of responses and the socio-economic and environmental context that also encompasses factors and processes unrelated to climate change. These insights can then provide a basis for identifying relevant causal relationships. We apply the framework to the floods that affected industrial production in Thailand in 2011, and to projected Arctic sea ice decline, and demonstrate that the framework can usefully capture the complex system dynamics of cross-border climate impacts. It also provides a useful mechanism to identify and understand adaptation strategies and their potential consequences in the wider context of resilience planning. The cross-border dimensions of climate impacts could become increasingly important as climate changes intensify. We conclude that our framework will allow for these to be properly accounted for, help to identify new areas of empirical and model-based research and thereby support climate risk management.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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