Multi-scale predictions of massive conifer mortality due to chronic temperature rise

Autor: Xiaofei Jiang, Sara A. Rauscher, Rosie A. Fisher, Sanna Sevanto, Jean-Christophe Domec, Jérôme Ogée, Jean-Marc Limousin, Craig D. Allen, J.J. Plaut, David D. Breshears, William T. Pockman, Lee T. Dickman, A. P. Williams, Nate G. McDowell, Chonggang Xu, Charles D. Koven, D. S. Mackay, Robert E. Pangle, J. D. Muss
Přispěvatelé: Earth and Environmental Sciences Division [Los Alamos], Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), The University of New Mexico [Albuquerque], State University of New York [Buffalo], Interactions Sol Plante Atmosphère (UMR ISPA), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Sciences Agronomiques de Bordeaux-Aquitaine (Bordeaux Sciences Agro), Duke University [Durham], Fort Collins Science Center, United States Geological Survey [Reston] (USGS), National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), University of Arizona, University of Delaware [Newark], Earth Science Division [LBNL Berkeley] (ESD), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory [Berkeley] (LBNL)
Rok vydání: 2015
Předmět:
Zdroj: Nature Climate Change
Nature Climate Change, Nature Publishing Group, 2016, 6, pp.295-300. ⟨10.1038/nclimate2873⟩
Nature Climate Change, vol 6, iss 3
ISSN: 1758-6798
1758-678X
Popis: International audience; Global temperature rise and extremes accompanying drought threaten forests1, 2 and their associated climatic feedbacks3, 4. Our ability to accurately simulate drought-induced forest impacts remains highly uncertain5, 6 in part owing to our failure to integrate physiological measurements, regional-scale models, and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). Here we show consistent predictions of widespread mortality of needleleaf evergreen trees (NET) within Southwest USA by 2100 using state-of-the-art models evaluated against empirical data sets. Experimentally, dominant Southwest USA NET species died when they fell below predawn water potential (Ψpd) thresholds (April–August mean) beyond which photosynthesis, hydraulic and stomatal conductance, and carbohydrate availability approached zero. The evaluated regional models accurately predicted NET Ψpd, and 91% of predictions (10 out of 11) exceeded mortality thresholds within the twenty-first century due to temperature rise. The independent DGVMs predicted ≥50% loss of Northern Hemisphere NET by 2100, consistent with the NET findings for Southwest USA. Notably, the global models underestimated future mortality within Southwest USA, highlighting that predictions of future mortality within global models may be underestimates. Taken together, the validated regional predictions and the global simulations predict widespread conifer loss in coming decades under projected global warming.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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