Developing an integrated microsimulation model for the impact of fiscal policies on child health in Europe: the example of childhood obesity in Italy
| Autor: | Davide Rasella, Delia Boccia, H. Xavier Jara, Mark A. Hanson, Matteo Richiardi, Lorenzo Richiardi, Constanza Pizzi |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
Pediatric Obesity
Economics Psychological intervention Distribution (economics) soziale Probleme Kind Child overweight health status Overweight Armutsbekämpfung Jugendsoziologie Soziologie der Kindheit Sociology & anthropology Body Mass Index 0302 clinical medicine Child health Child obesity Fiscal policies Microsimulation Poverty alleviation Birth Cohort Child Child Health Europe Health Policy Humans Prevalence Fiscal Policy 030212 general & internal medicine 050207 economics combating poverty media_common Übergewicht child 050208 finance 05 social sciences EU-SILC 2010 microsimulation child health child overweight child obesity 1. No poverty Wirtschaft General Medicine simulation Italy Soziale Probleme und Sozialdienste 8. Economic growth Medicine medicine.symptom ddc:301 Research Article Social Problems Steuerpolitik Italien 030209 endocrinology & metabolism Population health Family income Childhood obesity 03 medical and health sciences Child benefit 0502 economics and business medicine ddc:330 media_common.cataloged_instance Euromod overweight European union tax policy business.industry Sociology of the Youth Sociology of Childhood medicine.disease Öffentliche Finanzen und Finanzwissenschaft ddc:360 Soziologie Anthropologie Public Finance Household income Gesundheitszustand Demographic economics Social problems and services business EU |
| Zdroj: | BMC Medicine, Vol 19, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2021) BMC Medicine BMC Med |
| ISSN: | 1741-7015 |
| Popis: | Background We developed an integrated model called Microsimulation for Income and Child Health (MICH) that provides a tool for analysing the prospective effects of fiscal policies on childhood health in European countries. The aim of this first MICH study is to evaluate the impact of alternative fiscal policies on childhood overweight and obesity in Italy. Methods MICH model is composed of three integrated modules. Firstly, module 1 (M1) simulates the effects of fiscal policies on disposable household income using the tax-benefit microsimulation program EUROMOD fed with the Italian EU-SILC 2010 data. Secondly, module 2 (M2) exploits data provided by the Italian birth cohort called Nascita e Infanzia: gli Effetti dell’Ambiente (NINFEA), translated as Birth and Childhood: the Effects of the Environment study, and runs a series of concatenated regressions in order to estimate the prospective effects of income on child body mass index (BMI) at different ages. Finally, module 3 (M3) uses dynamic microsimulation techniques that combine the population structure and incomes obtained by M1, with regression model specifications and estimated effect sizes provided by M2, projecting BMI distributions according to the simulated policy scenarios. Results Both universal benefits, such as universal basic income (BI), and targeted interventions, such as child benefit (CB) for poorer households, have a significant effect on childhood overweight, with a prevalence ratio (PR) in 10-year-old children—in comparison with the baseline fiscal system—of 0.88 (95%CI 0.82–0.93) and 0.89 (95%CI 0.83–0.94), respectively. The impact of the fiscal reforms was even larger for child obesity, reaching a PR of 0.67 (95%CI 0·50–0.83) for the simulated BI and 0.64 (95%CI 0.44–0.84) for CB at the same age. While both types of policies show similar effects, the estimated costs for a 1% prevalence reduction in overweight and obesity with respect to the baseline scenario is much lower with a more focalised benefit policy than with universal ones. Conclusions Our results show that fiscal policies can have a strong impact on childhood health conditions. Focalised interventions that increase family income, especially in the most vulnerable populations, can help to prevent child overweight and obesity. Robust microsimulation models to forecast the effects of fiscal policies on health should be considered as one of the instruments to reach the Health in All Policies (HiAP) goals. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
|