Changes in rainfall erosivity calculated from convection-permitting climate simulations between 1971 and 2100
| Autor: | Uber, Magdalena, Haller, Michael, Brendel, Christoph, Hillebrand, Gudrun, Hoffmann, Thomas |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2023 |
| Zdroj: | XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) |
| Popis: | Soil erosion by water and sediment delivery to water bodies are major threats to soil and water resources around the globe. Under climate change, these processes are exacerbated because of an increase in extreme convective rainfalls in a warmer world. Many soil erosion models are based on the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) where the influence of climate is included in the rainfall erosivity factor R. In these models, projections of future rainfall erosivity are often impaired by the low spatio-temporal resolution of precipitation data generated by global or regional climate models. Convection-permitting climate simulations (CPS) have a high and to date unexploited potential for climate impact studies on soil erosion because of their high spatio-temporal resolution and their more accurate representation of heavy rainfall. Here we used the precipitation data generated by the convection-permitting model COSMO-CLM with a resolution of 3 km and 1h to calculate rainfall erosivity for central Europe in the past (1971-2000), present (2001-2019), near future (2031-2060) and far future (2071-2100). Our results show a high similarity between past modelled and measured rainfall erosivity. Furthermore, rainfall erosivity calculated from CPS precipitation data increased by up to 84% in the far future. This increase is much higher than previous estimates based on annual precipitation simulated with an ensemble of regional climate models. Thus, further studies are needed to estimate future rainfall erosivity and to assess the potential and limitations of using CPS for erosion modelling. The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023) |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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