Assessing climate change effects on gladiola in Southern Brazil
| Autor: | Camila Coelho Becker, Nereu Augusto Streck, Lilian Osmari Uhlmann, Jossana Ceolin Cera, Simone Erotildes Teleginski Ferraz, Waleska Bolson Silveira, Darlan Scapini Balest, Lucas Ferreira da Silva |
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| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
heat injuries
0106 biological sciences Coupled model intercomparison project Heat injury Agriculture (General) Climate change Sowing 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences rising temperature 01 natural sciences S1-972 Crop El Niño Southern Oscillation spike quality Air temperature planting date 040103 agronomy & agriculture 0401 agriculture forestry and fisheries Environmental science Physical geography 010606 plant biology & botany |
| Zdroj: | Scientia Agricola, Vol 78, Iss 1 (2020) Scientia Agricola, Volume: 78, Issue: 1, Article number: e20180275, Published: 13 MAR 2020 Scientia Agricola v.78 n.1 2021 Scientia Agrícola Universidade de São Paulo (USP) instacron:USP |
| ISSN: | 1678-992X |
| Popis: | Gladiola ( Gladiolus × grandiflorus Hort.) is an important cut flower for small farmers in Brazil. While the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which causes interannual variability to air temperature in Southern Brazil, can shift the optimum planting window of gladiola, an increase in temperature due to climate change can accelerate gladiola flowering and cause injuries by heat. The objective of this study was to assess the potential climate change effects on gladiola optimum planting date for specific market dates and investigate injuries occurrence on spikes in the Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil. Field experiments were conducted from 2016 to 2018 at four different locations across the Rio Grande do Sul State to evaluate the performance of the PhenoGlad model in simulating the developmental stages of gladiola. The PhenoGlad model was run on climate scenarios of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) named RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The climate change scenarios caused a delay in the optimum planting date to harvest gladiola for All Souls’ Day across the Rio Grande do Sul State. For harvesting spikes for Mother’s Day, negative anomalies (earliest planting date) occurred in the warmest regions, because the very high temperature extended the crop development. Injuries by heat on spikes reached positive anomalies in 70 % of the years in the warmest regions for scenario RCP8.5. To harvest spikes for Mother’s Day, heat injury did not exceed 20 % of the years. Mitigation strategies for farmers to deal with climate change and keep their gladiola production include adjusting the optimum planting date. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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