Performance of an easy-to-use prediction model for renal patient survival: an external validation study using data from the ERA-EDTA Registry
| Autor: | Martin B A Heemskerk, Aline C. Hemke, Bjørn Egil Vikse, Fergus Caskey, Marta Torres Guinea, José Maria Abad Diez, Philippe Brunet, Friedo W. Dekker, Cécile Couchoud, Kitty J Jager, Johan De Meester, Jaap W. Groothoff, Andries J. Hoitsma, Jamie P. Traynor, Patrik Finne, Merel van Diepen, Maurizio Nordio, James G. Heaf, Anneke Kramer, Ziad A. Massy |
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| Přispěvatelé: | APH - Quality of Care, APH - Aging & Later Life, Medical Informatics, Amsterdam Cardiovascular Sciences, Amsterdam Gastroenterology Endocrinology Metabolism, Paediatric Nephrology, APH - Methodology, Amsterdam Reproduction & Development (AR&D), APH - Global Health, ACS - Pulmonary hypertension & thrombosis |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2018 |
| Předmět: |
Adult
Male medicine.medical_specialty Adolescent Calibration (statistics) medicine.medical_treatment 030232 urology & nephrology kidney transplantation 030204 cardiovascular system & hematology survival Cohort Studies 03 medical and health sciences Young Adult 0302 clinical medicine All institutes and research themes of the Radboud University Medical Center external validation Renal Dialysis Internal medicine Clinical endpoint Medicine Humans Renal replacement therapy Registries Kidney transplantation Dialysis Aged Netherlands Transplantation Models Statistical business.industry Middle Aged medicine.disease Prognosis 3. Good health Europe prediction model Nephrology Cohort Kidney Failure Chronic dialysis Female Hemodialysis Renal disorders Radboud Institute for Health Sciences [Radboudumc 11] business renal replacement therapy |
| Zdroj: | Nephrology Dialysis Transplantation, 33(10), 1786-1793 Nephrology, Dialysis, Transplantation, 33, 10, pp. 1786-1793 Nephrology, dialysis, transplantation, 33(10), 1786-1793. Oxford University Press Hemke, A C, Heemskerk, M, van Diepen, M, Kramer, A, De Meester, J, Heaf, J G & Caskey, F 2018, ' Performance of an easy-to-use prediction model for renal patient survival : an external validation study using data from the ERA-EDTA Registry ', Nephrology Dialysis Transplantation, vol. 33, no. 10, gfx348, pp. 1786-1793 . https://doi.org/10.1093/ndt/gfx348 Nephrology, Dialysis, Transplantation, 33, 1786-1793 |
| ISSN: | 0931-0509 |
| Popis: | Background An easy to use prediction model for long-term renal patient survival, based on only four predictors (age, primary renal disease, sex, and therapy at 90 days after the start of renal replacement therapy (RRT)), has been developed in the Netherlands. To assess the usability of this model for use in Europe, we externally validated the model in ten European countries. Methods Data from the ERA-EDTA (European Renal Association - European Dialysis and Transplant Association) Registry were used. Ten countries that reported individual patient data to the registry on patients starting RRT in the period of 1995-2005 were included. Patients under 16 years of age and/or with missing predictor variable data were excluded. The external validation of the prediction model was evaluated for the 10-year (primary endpoint), 5- and 3-year survival predictions by assessing the calibration and discrimination outcomes. Results We used a dataset of 136,304 patients from 10 countries. The calibration in the large and calibration plots for 10 deciles of predicted survival probabilities showed average differences of 1.5%, 3.2% and 3.4% in observed versus predicted 10-, 5-, and 3-year survival, with some small variation on country-level. The C-index, indicating the discriminatory power of the model, was 0.71 in the complete ERA-EDTA Registry cohort and varied according to country level between 0.70 and 0.75. Conclusions A prediction model for long-term renal patient survival developed in a single country, based on only four easily available variables, has a comparably adequate performance in a wide range of other European countries. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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