Determinants and Predictors of SMEs’ Financial Failure: A Logistic Regression Approach
| Autor: | Abdeslam El Moudden, Mohamed Oudgou, Youssef Zizi |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
Finance
050208 finance Return on assets business.industry Asset turnover Strategy and Management logistic regression 05 social sciences Economics Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous) Sample (statistics) SMEs Logistic regression lcsh:HG8011-9999 determinants of financial failure Accounts payable lcsh:Insurance Accounting Economic context 0502 economics and business predictors of financial failure ddc:330 050207 economics Duration (project management) business Accounts receivable |
| Zdroj: | Risks Volume 8 Issue 4 Risks, Vol 8, Iss 107, p 107 (2020) |
| ISSN: | 2227-9091 |
| DOI: | 10.3390/risks8040107 |
| Popis: | This paper aims to identify the determinants and predictors of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs)&rsquo financial failure. Within this framework, we have opted for a quantitative method based on a sample of healthy and failing SMEs of a Moroccan bank. The main results of the different optimal models are obtained by the stepwise method of estimating logistic regression. These results show, in a normal economic context, that the variables that discriminate between healthy and failing SMEs are the main predictors of financial failure. Autonomy ratio, interest to sales, asset turnover, days in accounts receivable, and duration of trade payables are the variables that increase the probability of financial failure, while repayment capacity and return on assets reduce the probability of failure. These variables present an overall classification rate of healthy and failing SMEs of 91.11% three years before failure and of 84.44% two years and one year before failure. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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