The arrival of the new
| Autor: | Luigi Marengo, Paolo Zeppini |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2016 |
| Předmět: |
Patterns of evolution
Economics and Econometrics Returns to scale Adaptation and innovation Computer science business.industry 05 social sciences Adaptive change General Business Management and Accounting Increasing returns Independent set 0502 economics and business Artificial intelligence 050207 economics business Mathematical economics Polya urns 050203 business & management Selection (genetic algorithm) |
| Zdroj: | Marengo, L & Zeppini, P 2016, ' The arrival of the new ', Journal of Evolutionary Economics, vol. 26, no. 1, pp. 171-194 . https://doi.org/10.1007/s00191-015-0438-0 |
| Popis: | In this work we present a number of urn models in which, contrary to standard Pólya urns, the number of competing alternatives is not given from the outset but may increase with the arrival of innovations. We begin by describing a variant of Pólya urns, first introduced by Fred Hoppe, in which balls of previously non-existing colors are added with some (declining) probability. We then propose new variants in which the probability of the arrival of new colors is itself subject to adaptive change depending on the success of past innovations and discuss applications to evolutionary models of technologies and industries. We numerically simulate different specifications of these urns with adaptively changing mutation rate and show that they can account for complex patterns of evolution in which periods of exploration and innovation are followed by periods in which the dynamics of the system is driven by selection among a stable set of alternatives. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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