The oracle or the crowd? Experts versus the stock market in forecasting ceasefire success in the Levant
| Autor: | Gerald Schneider, Maya Hadar, Naomi Bosler |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2017 |
| Předmět: |
021110 strategic
defence & security studies Sociology and Political Science Ex-ante Operations research Financial economics business.industry 05 social sciences Financial market 0211 other engineering and technologies 02 engineering and technology 16. Peace & justice 0506 political science Crowds Quantitative analysis (finance) Stock exchange ddc:320 Political Science and International Relations 050602 political science & public administration Stock market business Psychology Safety Research Financial services Mass media |
| Zdroj: | Journal of Peace Research |
| ISSN: | 1460-3578 0022-3433 |
| DOI: | 10.1177/0022343316683437 |
| Popis: | The forecasting literature has come to mistrust the predictions made by experts who forecast political events in mass media. Distinguishing between judgements made by one or few individuals (‘oracles’) and assessments made by larger groups (‘crowds’), we contrast journalistic predictions with forecasts stemming from the financial industry. These two competing views were evaluated in a quantitative analysis of the ex ante success of 24 ceasefire agreements in various conflicts which took place in the Levant from 1993 to 2014. Our analysis compares the forecasts appearing in press commentaries ( Haaretz, Jerusalem Post and New York Times) with the expectations that the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange had about the stability of these cooperative efforts. To evaluate the predictions of these very dissimilar sources, the effectiveness of the ceasefires was analysed through the number of violent events following the official start of the truce. The analysis shows that the financial industry performs better than the media industry in the comparative evaluation of ceasefire forecasts, but that neither source provides sufficiently accurate predictions. The partial support for the crowd thesis is discussed in light of recent literature that resuscitates the usage of well-trained experts for forecasting purposes, but warns against the dramatizing predictions of media pundits. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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