Constraining Amazonian land surface temperature sensitivity to precipitation and the probability of forest dieback
| Autor: | Celso von Randow, Tiexi Chen, Yuanfang Chai, Guilherme Martins, Carlos A. Nobre, Han Dolman |
|---|---|
| Přispěvatelé: | Earth and Climate, Earth Sciences |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
0303 health sciences
Atmospheric Science Global and Planetary Change 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Land surface temperature Amazon rainforest Amazonian Vegetation Tipping point (climatology) 01 natural sciences Environmental sciences 03 medical and health sciences Forest dieback Air temperature Climatology Meteorology. Climatology SDG 13 - Climate Action Environmental Chemistry Environmental science GE1-350 Precipitation QC851-999 030304 developmental biology 0105 earth and related environmental sciences |
| Zdroj: | Chai, Y, Martins, G, Nobre, C, von Randow, C, Chen, T & Dolman, H 2021, ' Constraining Amazonian land surface temperature sensitivity to precipitation and the probability of forest dieback ', NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE, vol. 4, no. 1, 6, pp. 1-7 . https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00162-1 npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 4, Iss 1, Pp 1-7 (2021) NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE, 4(1):6, 1-7. Nature Research |
| ISSN: | 2397-3722 |
| Popis: | The complete or partial collapse of the forests of Amazonia is consistently named as one of the top ten possible tipping points of Planet Earth in a changing climate. However, apart from a few observational studies that showed increased mortality after the severe droughts of 2005 and 2010, the evidence for such collapse depends primarily on modelling. Such studies are notoriously deficient at predicting the rainfall in the Amazon basin and how the vegetation interacts with the rainfall is poorly represented. Here, we use long-term surface-based observations of the air temperature and rainfall in Amazonia to provide a constraint on the modelled sensitivity of temperature to changes in precipitation. This emergent constraint also allows us to significantly constrain the likelihood of a forest collapse or dieback. We conclude that Amazon dieback under IPCC scenario RCP8.5 (crossing the tipping point) is not likely to occur in the twenty-first century. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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