An individual-based network model to evaluate interventions for controlling pneumococcal transmission
| Autor: | Andreas Jansson, Patric Nilsson, Birgitta Henriques Normark, Diana Karlsson |
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| Rok vydání: | 2008 |
| Předmět: |
Adult
medicine.medical_specialty Pediatrics Adolescent Psychological intervention Contact network medicine.disease_cause Models Biological Pneumococcal Infections lcsh:Infectious and parasitic diseases law.invention Individual based Medical microbiology Risk Factors law Streptococcus pneumoniae medicine Humans Computer Simulation lcsh:RC109-216 Child Intensive care medicine Network model Sweden business.industry Age Factors Infant Child Day Care Centers Middle Aged medicine.disease Pneumococcal infections Infectious Diseases Transmission (mechanics) Child Preschool Communicable Disease Control Epidemiologic Methods business Research Article |
| Zdroj: | BMC Infectious Diseases, Vol 8, Iss 1, p 83 (2008) BMC Infectious Diseases |
| ISSN: | 1471-2334 |
| DOI: | 10.1186/1471-2334-8-83 |
| Popis: | Background Streptococcus pneumoniae is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, but also a common colonizer of the upper respiratory tract. The emergence and spread of antibiotic resistant pneumococcal strains has threatened effective therapy. The long-term effects of measures aiming to limit pneumococcal spread are poorly understood. Computational modeling makes it possible to conduct virtual experiments that are impractical to perform in real life and thereby allows a more full understanding of pneumococcal epidemiology and control efforts. Methods We have developed a contact network model to evaluate the efficacy of interventions aiming to control pneumococcal transmission. Demographic data from Sweden during the mid-2000s were employed. Analyses of the model's parameters were conducted to elucidate key determinants of pneumococcal spread. Also, scenario simulations were performed to assess candidate control measures. Results The model made good predictions of previous findings where a correlation has been found between age and pneumococcal carriage. Of the parameters tested, group size in day-care centers was shown to be one of the most important factors for pneumococcal transmission. Consistent results were generated from the scenario simulations. Conclusion We recommend, based on the model predictions, that strategies to control pneumococcal disease and organism transmission should include reducing the group size in day-care centers. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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