A process‐based soil erosion model ensemble to assess model uncertainty in climate‐change impact assessments
Autor: | Joris de Vente, Carmelo Conesa-García, Alberto Martínez-Salvador, Rafael García-Lorenzo, Pedro Pérez-Cutillas, Agustín Millares-Valenzuela, J.P.C. Eekhout |
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Přispěvatelé: | Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España), Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España), European Commission, Eekhout, Joris P. C. [0000-0003-2097-696X], Millares-Valenzuela, Agustín [0000-0002-7120-7493], Martínez‐Salvador, Alberto [0000-0002-9113-3487], García‐Lorenzo, Rafael [0000-0002-4495-4944], Pérez-Cutillas, Pedro [0000-0003-1271-3895], Conesa García, Carmenlo [0000-0002-3818-5421], Vente, Joris de [0000-0001-7428-0621], Eekhout, Joris P. C., Millares-Valenzuela, Agustín, Martínez‐Salvador, Alberto, García‐Lorenzo, Rafael, Pérez-Cutillas, Pedro, Conesa García, Carmenlo, Vente, Joris de |
Rok vydání: | 2021 |
Předmět: |
HSPF
Soil Science SHETRAN Climate change 010501 environmental sciences Development Atmospheric sciences 01 natural sciences Model ensemble Deposition (geology) Environmental Chemistry Precipitation 0105 earth and related environmental sciences General Environmental Science Impact assessment 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences Process‐based Model uncertainty 040103 agronomy & agriculture Soil erosion 0401 agriculture forestry and fisheries Environmental science Climate model Surface runoff |
Zdroj: | Digital.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC instname |
Popis: | The impact of climate change on future soil loss is commonly assessed with soil erosion models, which are suggested to be an important source of uncertainty. Here, we present a novel soil erosion model ensemble to assess model uncertainty in climate‐change impact assessments. The model ensemble consists of five continuous process‐based soil erosion models that run at a daily time step (i.e., DHSVM, HSPF, INCA, MMF, SHETRAN). The models were implemented in the SPHY hydrological model and simulate detachment by raindrop impact, detachment by runoff, and immediate deposition. The soil erosion model ensemble was applied in a semiarid catchment in the southeast of Spain. We applied three future climate scenarios based on global mean temperature rise (+1.5, +2 and +3°C). Data from two contrasting regional climate models were used to assess how an increase and a decrease in projected extreme precipitation affect model uncertainty. Soil loss is projected to increase (up to 95%) and decrease (up to −30%) under climate change, mostly reflecting the change in extreme precipitation. Model uncertainty is found to increase with increasing slope, extreme precipitation and runoff, which reveals some inherent differences in model assumptions among the five models. Moreover, the model uncertainty increases in all climate change scenarios, independent of the projected change in annual precipitation and extreme precipitation. This stresses the importance to consider model uncertainty through model ensembles of climate, hydrology, and soil erosion in climate‐change impact assessments. This work has been financed by ERDF/Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities—State Research Agency/Project CGL2017‐84625‐C2‐1‐R (CCAMICEM) and Project PID2019‐109381RB‐I00/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 (XTREME) both under the National Program for Research, Development and Innovation focused on the Societal Challenges |
Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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