Development and validation of a novel nomogram predicting 10-year actual survival after curative hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma
| Autor: | Mingheng Liao, Jiwei Huang, Nicole M.Y. Cheng, Grace Lai-Hung Wong, Vincent Wai-Sun Wong, H.T. Lok, Kelvin K. Ng, Sunny Y.S. Cheung, John Wong, Andrew K Y Fung, Kit-Fai Lee, Charing C N Chong, Paul B.S. Lai |
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| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
Oncology
medicine.medical_specialty Multivariate analysis Carcinoma Hepatocellular medicine.medical_treatment 03 medical and health sciences Predictive nomogram 0302 clinical medicine Internal medicine Carcinoma medicine Hepatectomy Humans Internal validation Retrospective Studies business.industry Liver Neoplasms Nomogram medicine.disease Prognosis Young age Nomograms 030220 oncology & carcinogenesis Hepatocellular carcinoma 030211 gastroenterology & hepatology Surgery business |
| Zdroj: | The surgeon : journal of the Royal Colleges of Surgeons of Edinburgh and Ireland. 19(6) |
| ISSN: | 1479-666X |
| Popis: | Although hepatectomy is a curative treatment modality for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the associated 10-year long-term actual survival are rarely reported. This study aims to develop and validate a predictive nomogram for 10-year actual survivors with HCC.From 2004 to 2009, 753 patients with curative hepatectomy for HCC (development set, n = 325; validation set, n = 428) were included. In development set, comparison of clinic-pathological data was made between patients surviving ≥10 years and those surviving10 years. Good independent prognostic factors identified by multivariate analysis were involved in a nomogram development, which was validated internally and externally using validation set.On multivariate analysis, five independent good prognostic factors for 10-year survival were identified, including young age (OR = 0.943), good ASA status (≤2) (OR = 2.794), higher albumin level (OR = 1.116), solitary tumor (OR = 2.531) and absence of microvascular invasion (OR = 3.367). A novel nomogram was constructed with C-index of 0.801 (95% CI 0.762-0.864). A cut-off point of 167.5 had a sensitivity of 0.794 and specificity of 0.730. Internal validation using bootstrap sampling and external validation using validation set revealed C-index of 0.792 (95% CI, 0.741-0.853) and 0.761 (95% CI, 0.718-0.817).A novel nomogram for 10-year HCC survivor using age, ASA status, preoperative albumin, tumor number and presence of microvascular tumor invasion was developed and validated with high accuracy. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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