Anticipated burden and mitigation of carbon-dioxide-induced nutritional deficiencies and related diseases: A simulation modeling study
| Autor: | Eran Bendavid, Sanjay Basu, Christopher Weyant, Marshall Burke, David B. Lobell, Margaret L. Brandeau |
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| Rok vydání: | 2018 |
| Předmět: |
0301 basic medicine
Atmospheric Science Global Health Pathology and Laboratory Medicine 0302 clinical medicine Nutrient Medicine and Health Sciences Global health Public and Occupational Health 030212 general & internal medicine 2. Zero hunger Nutritional Deficiencies 1. No poverty Agriculture General Medicine Iron deficiency 3. Good health Chemistry Micronutrient Deficiencies Physical Sciences Medicine Research Article Diarrhea medicine.medical_specialty Climate change Crops Gastroenterology and Hepatology Greenhouse Gases 03 medical and health sciences Signs and Symptoms Diagnostic Medicine Environmental health Food Quality medicine Environmental Chemistry Humans Disease burden Nutrition business.industry Public health Ecology and Environmental Sciences Malnutrition Chemical Compounds Biology and Life Sciences Carbon Dioxide 15. Life on land medicine.disease Carbon 030104 developmental biology 13. Climate action Atmospheric Chemistry Iron Deficiency Earth Sciences Environmental science business Crop Science |
| Zdroj: | PLoS Medicine PLoS Medicine, Vol 15, Iss 7, p e1002586 (2018) |
| ISSN: | 1549-1676 |
| Popis: | Background Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are anticipated to decrease the zinc and iron concentrations of crops. The associated disease burden and optimal mitigation strategies remain unknown. We sought to understand where and to what extent increasing carbon dioxide concentrations may increase the global burden of nutritional deficiencies through changes in crop nutrient concentrations, and the effects of potential mitigation strategies. Methods and findings For each of 137 countries, we incorporated estimates of climate change, crop nutrient concentrations, dietary patterns, and disease risk into a microsimulation model of zinc and iron deficiency. These estimates were obtained from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, US Department of Agriculture, Statistics Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, and Global Burden of Disease Project, respectively. In the absence of increasing carbon dioxide concentrations, we estimated that zinc and iron deficiencies would induce 1,072.9 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) globally over the period 2015 to 2050 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 971.1–1,167.7). In the presence of increasing carbon dioxide concentrations, we estimated that decreasing zinc and iron concentrations of crops would induce an additional 125.8 million DALYs globally over the same period (95% CrI: 113.6–138.9). This carbon-dioxide-induced disease burden is projected to disproportionately affect nations in the World Health Organization’s South-East Asia and African Regions (44.0 and 28.5 million DALYs, respectively), which already have high existing disease burdens from zinc and iron deficiencies (364.3 and 299.5 million DALYs, respectively), increasing global nutritional inequalities. A climate mitigation strategy such as the Paris Agreement (an international agreement to keep global temperatures within 2°C of pre-industrial levels) would be expected to avert 48.2% of this burden (95% CrI: 47.8%–48.5%), while traditional public health interventions including nutrient supplementation and disease control programs would be expected to avert 26.6% of the burden (95% CrI: 23.8%–29.6%). Of the traditional public health interventions, zinc supplementation would be expected to avert 5.5%, iron supplementation 15.7%, malaria mitigation 3.2%, pneumonia mitigation 1.6%, and diarrhea mitigation 0.5%. The primary limitations of the analysis include uncertainty regarding how food consumption patterns may change with climate, how disease mortality rates will change over time, and how crop zinc and iron concentrations will decline from those at present to those in 2050. Conclusions Effects of increased carbon dioxide on crop nutrient concentrations are anticipated to exacerbate inequalities in zinc and iron deficiencies by 2050. Proposed Paris Agreement strategies are expected to be more effective than traditional public health measures to avert the increased inequality. In a modeling study Christopher Weyant and colleagues predict reduced crop nutritional content and subsequent health disparities due to increased carbon dioxide levels caused by climate change. Author summary Why was this study done? Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are anticipated to decrease the zinc and iron concentrations of some crops. The disease burden induced by changes in zinc and iron concentrations in crops, and optimal mitigation strategies, are unknown. What did the researchers do and find? We developed a country-level microsimulation model of zinc and iron deficiency to project the health effects of zinc- and iron-deficiency-related diseases in terms of disability-adjusted life years accumulated over the period 2015 to 2050, worldwide. We estimated that carbon-dioxide-induced reductions in the zinc and iron concentrations of crops would be expected to induce approximately 125.8 million disability-adjusted life years globally over the period from 2015 to 2050, disproportionately affecting South-East Asian and sub-Saharan African countries. We also estimated that a climate mitigation strategy concordant with the Paris Agreement would avert a greater portion of this burden (approximately 48.2%) than traditional public health interventions (approximately 26.6%). What do these findings mean? The effects of increased carbon dioxide concentrations on crop nutrient concentrations may increase existing inequalities in nutritional deficiencies by 2050. Climate mitigation strategies, such as the Paris Agreement, may be more effective than traditional public health interventions in averting this increased inequality. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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