The influence of latent and chronic infection on pathogen persistence
| Autor: | Christian Gortázar, Francisco Ruiz-Fons, Damian Clancy, Andrew White, Xander O’Neill |
|---|---|
| Přispěvatelé: | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (UK), Scottish Funding Council, Heriot-Watt University, University of Edinburgh, Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (UK), Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España), Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España) |
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
0106 biological sciences
2019-20 coronavirus outbreak disease control Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) General Mathematics Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Biology 01 natural sciences infectious disease modelling Persistence (computer science) 03 medical and health sciences Infectious disease modelling Disease control Infection fade-out QA1-939 Computer Science (miscellaneous) Engineering (miscellaneous) Pathogen 030304 developmental biology 0303 health sciences Extinction (psychology) 010601 ecology Chronic infection Extinction time infection fade-out Immunology Mathematics |
| Zdroj: | Digital.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC instname Mathematics Volume 9 Issue 9 Mathematics, Vol 9, Iss 1007, p 1007 (2021) |
| Popis: | This article belongs to the Special Issue Statistical Methods for the Analysis of Infectious Diseases. We extend the classical compartmental frameworks for susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) and susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) systems to include an exposed/latent class or a chronic class of infection. Using a suite of stochastic continuous-time Markov chain models we examine the impact of latent and chronic infection on the mean time to extinction of the infection. Our findings indicate that the mean time to pathogen extinction is increased for infectious diseases which cause exposed/latent infection prior to full infection and that the extinction time is increased further if these exposed individuals are also capable of transmitting the infection. A chronic infection stage can decrease or increase the mean time to pathogen extinction and in particular this depends on whether chronically infected individuals incur disease-induced mortality and whether they are able to transmit the infection. We relate our findings to specific infectious diseases that exhibit latent and chronic infectious stages and argue that infectious diseases with these characteristics may be more difficult to manage and control. X.O. was supported by The Maxwell Institute Graduate School in Analysis and its Applications, a Centre for Doctoral Training funded by the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (grant EP/L016508/01), the Scottish Funding Council, Heriot-Watt University and the University of Edinburgh. A.W. was supported in part by a BBSRC EEID research grant BB/V00378X/1. This work is a contribution to the MCIU project CGL2017-89866 WildDriver. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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