Drivers of future alien species impacts: An expert‐based assessment
| Autor: | Michael R. Springborn, Stefan Dullinger, Petr Pyšek, Núria Roura-Pascual, Helen E. Roy, Brady J. Mattsson, Cang Hui, Jonathan M. Jeschke, Franz Essl, Ingolf Kühn, Rafael D. Zenni, Philip E. Hulme, Anna J. Turbelin, Gregory M. Ruiz, James C. Russell, Andrew M. Liebhold, Martin A. Nuñez, Sarah A. Bailey, Betsy Von Holle, Hugh J. MacIsaac, Wolfgang Rabitsch, Chunlong Liu, David M. Richardson, Hanno Seebens, Mark van Kleunen, Sven Bacher, Marten Winter, Riccardo Scalera, Bernd Lenzner, Laura A. Meyerson, Nathan J. Sanders, Stelios Katsanevakis, Aníbal Pauchard, Dov F. Sax, Curtis C. Daehler, Brian Leung, Piero Genovesi, César Capinha |
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| Přispěvatelé: | Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
0106 biological sciences
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Biome biological invasions Biodiversity 01 natural sciences Expert survey Primary Research Article Taxonomic rank General Environmental Science Global and Planetary Change Convention on Biological Diversity Ecology scenarios uncertainties Uncertainties Management Policy Biological diversity Impacts management policy Ecology (disciplines) Climate Change Climate change 010603 evolutionary biology expert survey Ecology and Environment Globalization Scenarios ddc:570 Environmental Chemistry Humans 14. Life underwater Biological invasions Invasions biològiques impacts Environmental planning Ecosystem 0105 earth and related environmental sciences biological invasions expert survey globalization impacts management policy scenarios uncertainties 15. Life on land Biodiversitat 13. Climate action Biological dispersal Introduced Species globalization Forecasting |
| Zdroj: | Global Change Biology, 2020, vol. 26, núm. 9, p. 4880-4893 Articles publicats (D-CCAA) DUGiDocs – Universitat de Girona instname Global Change Biology Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP) instacron:RCAAP |
| Popis: | Understanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socio‐economic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an expert assessment of the drivers of potential alien species impacts under contrasting scenarios and socioecological contexts through the mid‐21st century. Based on responses from 36 experts in biological invasions, moderate (20%–30%) increases in invasions, compared to the current conditions, are expected to cause major impacts on biodiversity in most socioecological contexts. Three main drivers of biological invasions—transport, climate change and socio‐economic change—were predicted to significantly affect future impacts of alien species on biodiversity even under a best‐case scenario. Other drivers (e.g. human demography and migration in tropical and subtropical regions) were also of high importance in specific global contexts (e.g. for individual taxonomic groups or biomes). We show that some best‐case scenarios can substantially reduce potential future impacts of biological invasions. However, rapid and comprehensive actions are necessary to use this potential and achieve the goals of the Post‐2020 Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity. Distribution of uncertainty if 15 major drivers of biological invasions will exhibit major impacts on the environment by 2050 under a best‐ and worst‐case scenario. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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