Spreading Dynamics of a Viral Infection in a Complex Network

Autor: Khemanand Moheeput, Goorah, Smita S. D., Ramchurn, Satish K.
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2013
Předmět:
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.1087025
Popis: We report a computational study of the spreading dynamics of a viral infection in a complex (scale-free) network. The final epidemic size distribution (FESD) was found to be unimodal or bimodal depending on the value of the basic reproductive number R0 . The FESDs occurred on time-scales long enough for intermediate-time epidemic size distributions (IESDs) to be important for control measures. The usefulness of R0 for deciding on the timeliness and intensity of control measures was found to be limited by the multimodal nature of the IESDs and by its inability to inform on the speed at which the infection spreads through the population. A reduction of the transmission probability at the hubs of the scale-free network decreased the occurrence of the larger-sized epidemic events of the multimodal distributions. For effective epidemic control, an early reduction in transmission at the index cell and its neighbors was essential.
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