Cause-of-Death Mortality: What Can Be Learned From Population Dynamics?
| Autor: | Nicole El Karoui, Séverine Arnold, Héloïse Labit Hardy, Alexandre Boumezoued |
|---|---|
| Přispěvatelé: | Département de Sciences Actuarielles, Université de Lausanne, Université de Lausanne (UNIL), Laboratoire de Probabilités et Modèles Aléatoires (LPMA), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), The authors benefited from the financial support of the 'Germaine de Staël' program Modélisation des causes de décès dans la dynamique des populations (Gds 2014-14). Alexandre Boumezoued and Nicole El Karoui also benefited from the financial support by ANR project Dynamic models for longevity with lifestyle adjustments, Lolita (ANR-13-BS01-0011)., ANR-13-BS01-0011,LoLitA,Modèles dynamiques pour la longévité humaine avec ajustements de style de vie(2013), Université de Lausanne = University of Lausanne (UNIL), Boumezoued, Alexandre, Blanc 2013 - Modèles dynamiques pour la longévité humaine avec ajustements de style de vie - - LoLitA2013 - ANR-13-BS01-0011 - Blanc 2013 - VALID |
| Rok vydání: | 2015 |
| Předmět: |
Statistics and Probability
Cause-of-Death Mortality Economics and Econometrics media_common.quotation_subject Population Population Dynamics Fertility Biology [SHS.DEMO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Demography 01 natural sciences [SHS]Humanities and Social Sciences 010104 statistics & probability Population pyramid 0502 economics and business Compensation law of mortality Cause-of-Death Mortality Population Dynamics Birth and Death Process Individual-Based Model Age Pyramid Age Dependency Ra-tio Macroscopic Behavior 050207 economics 0101 mathematics [SHS.ECO] Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance education Age Pyramid Survival analysis Cause of death media_common Pension education.field_of_study JEL: J - Labor and Demographic Economics/J.J1 - Demographic Economics [SHS.DEMO] Humanities and Social Sciences/Demography Birth and Death Process 05 social sciences Individual-Based Model Macroscopic Behavior [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance Life expectancy Dependency ratio [SHS] Humanities and Social Sciences Statistics Probability and Uncertainty JEL: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C6 - Mathematical Methods • Programming Models • Mathematical and Simulation Modeling Age Dependency Ra-tio Demography |
| Popis: | This paper analyses cause-of-death mortality changes and its impacts on the whole population evolution. The study combines cause-of-death analysis and population dynamics techniques. Our aim is to measure the impact of cause-of-death reduction on the whole population age structure, and more specifically on the depdendency ratio which is a crucial quantity for pay-as-you-go pension systems. Whereas previous studies on causes of death focused on mortality indicators such as survival curves or life expectancy, our approach provides additional information by including birth patterns. As an important conclusion, our numerical results based on French data show that populations with identical life expectancies can present important differences in their age pyramid resulting from different cause-specific mortality reductions. Sensitivities to fertility level and population flows are also given. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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