Assessing the potential impact of vector-borne disease transmission following heavy rainfall events: a mathematical framework
| Autor: | G. Chowell, K. Mizumoto, J. M. Banda, S. Poccia, C. Perrings |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: |
Male
Climate Rain 030231 tropical medicine Vector Borne Diseases Climate change heavy rainfall event vector-borne disease General Biochemistry Genetics and Molecular Biology mosquito-borne disease 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine medicine Animals Humans Natural disaster 030304 developmental biology climate change mathematical model transmission dynamics Mosquito-borne disease 0303 health sciences Potential impact Cyclonic Storms business.industry Simulation modeling Environmental resource management Outbreak Articles Models Theoretical mosquito-borne disease vector-borne disease mathematical model transmission dynamics heavy rainfall event climate change medicine.disease Texas Culicidae Geography 13. Climate action Infectious disease (medical specialty) Female Seasons General Agricultural and Biological Sciences business Disease transmission Research Article |
| Zdroj: | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences |
| Popis: | Predicting the impact of natural disasters such as hurricanes on the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases poses significant challenges. In this paper, we put forward a simple modelling framework to investigate the impact of heavy rainfall events (HREs) on mosquito-borne disease transmission in temperate areas of the world such as the southern coastal areas of the USA. In particular, we explore the impact of the timing of HREs relative to the transmission season via analyses that test the sensitivity of HRE-induced epidemics to variation in the effects of rainfall on the dynamics of mosquito breeding capacity, and the intensity and temporal profile of human population displacement patterns. The recent Hurricane Harvey in Texas motivates the simulations reported. Overall, we find that the impact of vector-borne disease transmission is likely to be greater the earlier the HREs occur in the transmission season. Simulations based on data for Hurricane Harvey suggest that the limited impact it had on vector-borne disease transmission was in part because of when it occurred (late August) relative to the local transmission season, and in part because of the mitigating effect of the displacement of people. We also highlight key data gaps related to models of vector-borne disease transmission in the context of natural disasters. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes’. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control’. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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