Impact of improved meteorological forcing, profile of soil hydraulic conductivity and data assimilation on an operational Hydrological Ensemble Forecast System over France
| Autor: | Mathieu Coustau, Bruno Janet, Céline de Saint-Aubin, Florence Habets, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Guillaume Thirel, Fabienne Rousset-Regimbeau, Eric Martin |
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| Přispěvatelé: | Météo France, Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Hydrosystèmes et Bioprocédés (UR HBAN), Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), SCHAPI TOULOUSE FRA, Partenaires IRSTEA, Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA) |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2015 |
| Předmět: |
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Meteorology Ensemble forecasting HYDROLOGICAL MODELLING Hydrological modelling 0207 environmental engineering Mesoscale meteorology 02 engineering and technology Forcing (mathematics) 01 natural sciences 6. Clean water Data assimilation Hydraulic conductivity ENSEMBLE PREDICTION 13. Climate action Climatology Streamflow [SDE]Environmental Sciences 020701 environmental engineering Lead time 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Water Science and Technology |
| Zdroj: | Journal of Hydrology Journal of Hydrology, Elsevier, 2015, pp.781-792. ⟨10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.04.022⟩ |
| ISSN: | 0022-1694 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.04.022⟩ |
| Popis: | International audience; A Hydrological Ensemble Forecasting System (HEFS) known as SIMPE has been run over France in real time by Météo-France since 2004. The system combines the 51-member, 10-day ECMWF EPS atmospheric forcing at a 1.5° resolution with the ISBA-MODCOU physically-based distributed hydrological model to provide streamflow forecasts over France. The initial conditions for all the HEFS runs are provided by SIM; i.e., the ISBA-MODCOU model forced by the outputs of the mesoscale meteorological analysis system SAFRAN. A previous study introduced and tested two improvements of this system over a past period. These modifications consisted of an improved representation of the profile of hydraulic conductivity and the implementation of a data assimilation subsystem. The purpose of the present study was to test the HEFS and its two modifications in operational mode, with the new higher-resolution ECMWF EPS atmospheric forcing at 0.25° resolution, available in real time on the Météo-France database, and with less observed discharge available for the data assimilation subsystem. The new ISBA physics scheme led to a notable improvement in the discharge simulation in western and northeastern France, where no aquifers were simulated by the MODCOU model. This improvement was not impacted by real-time conditions. Likewise, the improvement resulting from the data assimilation system applied over France was not significantly affected by real-time conditions. The propagation of the data assimilation correction to gauging stations located upstream or downstream of the assimilated stations limited the deterioration of forecasted streamflow due to real-time conditions. Finally, the ECMWF EPS high-resolution atmospheric forcing had a significant impact on the streamflow forecasts for small catchments, which increased with lead time. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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