Tree Species Selection in the Face of Drought Risk—Uncertainty in Forest Planning
| Autor: | Matthias Albert, Johannes Sutmöller, Ralf-Volker Nagel, Hermann Spellmann, Robert S. Nuske |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2017 |
| Předmět: |
0106 biological sciences
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Forest management Biodiversity forest management Climate change 010603 evolutionary biology 01 natural sciences Forest restoration Effects of global warming uncertainty forest conversion Silviculture 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Abiotic component drought risk business.industry species selection Environmental resource management Forestry lcsh:QK900-989 climate change lcsh:Plant ecology Environmental science business Management by objectives |
| Zdroj: | Forests, Vol 8, Iss 10, p 363 (2017) Forests; Volume 8; Issue 10; Pages: 363 |
| ISSN: | 1999-4907 |
| Popis: | Rapid climate change leads to significant shifts in the site-productivity relationship of tree species and alters abiotic and biotic risks well beyond classical rotation ages on many forest sites worldwide. Forest conversion may be an adequate measure to counter possible negative effects of climate change. Unfortunately, climate-driven changes in abiotic and biotic risks bear a significant source of intrinsic uncertainty inherent in climate projections. It is our goal to appraise uncertainty in species selection under drought stress, one of the most important risk factors for many forests. We derive a method to assess drought restrictions and demonstrate the uncertainty in the process of species selection by applying three climate scenarios. Furthermore, we interpret the consequences of climate uncertainty in the light of different management goals, i.e., a business-as-usual silviculture, a climate protection strategy favoring CO2 sequestration and a biodiversity strategy increasing diversity. The methods are applied to two representative regions in the North German Plain. The results clearly show the strong need for adaptive planning when drought restrictions are considered. However, different silvicultural management objectives may alter the extent of adaptive planning. The uncertainty in the planning process arising from different underlying climate projections strongly depends on the regional site characteristics and on forest management strategy. In conclusion, it is most important in forest planning to clearly state the management goals and to carefully explore if the goals can be met under climate change and if the uncertainty due to climate projections significantly affects the results of species selection. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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