Central Asian rivers under climate change: Impacts assessment in eight representative catchments
| Autor: | Atabek Umirbekov, Iulii Didovets, Valentina Krysanova, Zhanna Babagalieva, Nadejda Gavrilenko, Anastasia Lobanova, Aliya Nurbatsina, Vohid Khamidov, Fred F. Hattermann, Sobir Qodirov, Christoph Menz, Dowletgeldi Muhyyew |
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| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Hydrological modelling 0207 environmental engineering Climate change 02 engineering and technology 01 natural sciences Central Asia ddc:330 Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) Precipitation 020701 environmental engineering lcsh:Physical geography 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Water Science and Technology Discharge lcsh:QE1-996.5 SWIM Representative Concentration Pathways hydrological modelling Snow Amu Darya lcsh:Geology Water resources climate change Period (geology) Environmental science Physical geography lcsh:GB3-5030 Syr Darya |
| Zdroj: | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Vol 34, Iss, Pp 100779-(2021) |
| ISSN: | 2214-5818 |
| Popis: | Study region Eight river catchments within Central Asia. Study focus The limited amount of water resources is already an issue in the Central Asian region, and climate change may be crucial for water availability and development of countries in the region. This study investigates potential climate change impacts on water resources in Central Asia to the end of the century by focusing on eight river catchments with diverse natural conditions located in different countries. The eco-hydrological model SWIM was setup, calibrated and validated for all selected catchments under study. Scenarios from five bias-corrected GCMs under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 were used to drive the hydrological model. New hydrological insights for the region The results show an increase of mean annual temperature in all catchments for both RCPs to the end of the century. The projected changes in annual precipitation indicate a clear trend to increase in the Zhabay and to decrease in the Murghab catchments, and for other catchments, they were smaller. The projected trends for river discharge are similar to those of precipitation, with an increase in the north and decrease in the south of the study region. Seasonal changes are characterized by a shift in the peak of river discharge up to one month, shortage of snow accumulation period, and reduction of discharge in summer months. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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