The role of movement restrictions in limiting the economic impact of livestock infections
| Autor: | Marleen Werkman, Michael J. Tildesley, E. Brooks Pollock, Samuel Brand, Naomi Bradbury, Matthew James Keeling |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: |
HE
Population dynamics 040301 veterinary sciences Geography Planning and Development Disease Management Monitoring Policy and Law Article 0403 veterinary science 03 medical and health sciences Development economics Revenue SF Economic impact analysis Duration (project management) Stochastic modelling 030304 developmental biology Nature and Landscape Conservation 2. Zero hunger QL 0303 health sciences Global and Planetary Change Ecology Renewable Energy Sustainability and the Environment Transmission (medicine) business.industry Movement (music) 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences Limiting Urban Studies Livestock Business Food Science |
| Zdroj: | Tildesley, M J, Brand, S, Brooks Pollock, E, Bradbury, N V, Werkman, M & Keeling, M J 2019, ' The role of movement restrictions in limiting the economic impact of livestock infections ', Nature Sustainability, vol. 2, pp. 834-840 . https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0356-5 Nature sustainability |
| ISSN: | 2398-9629 |
| Popis: | Livestock movements are essential for the economic success of the industry. However, these movements come with the risk of long-range spread of infection, potentially bringing infection to previously disease-free areas where subsequent localized transmission can be devastating. Mechanistic predictive models usually consider controls that minimize the number of livestock affected without considering other costs of an ongoing epidemic. However, it is more appropriate to consider the economic burden, as movement restrictions have major consequences for the economic revenue of farms. Here, using mechanistic models of foot-and-mouth disease, bluetongue virus and bovine tuberculosis in the UK, we compare the economically optimal control strategies for these diseases. We show that for foot-and-mouth disease, the optimal strategy is to ban movements in a small radius around infected farms; the balance between disease control and maintaining ‘business as usual’ varies between regions. For bluetongue virus and bovine tuberculosis, we find that the cost of any movement ban is greater than the epidemiological benefits due to the low within-farm prevalence and slow rate of disease spread. This work suggests that movement controls need to be carefully matched to the epidemiological and economic consequences of the disease, and that optimal movement bans are often of far shorter duration than allowed under existing policy. Moving livestock is essential to the industry, but such mobility can spread disease. Considering three livestock diseases in the UK, this study finds that movement controls should be matched to the consequences of a disease and, crucially, that optimal movement bans are often far shorter than allowed under existing policy. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
|
Full text from SpringerLink