Modeling tourism: A fully identified VECM approach
| Autor: | Byron Gangnes, Carl Bonham, Ting Zhou |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2009 |
| Předmět: |
Identification
Cointegration Control (management) Abstract system Tourism forecasting Demand forecasting Article Hawaii Economic dynamics Error correction model Identification (information) Econometrics Economics Business and International Management Vector error correction model Tourism demand and supply analysis Tourism |
| Zdroj: | International Journal of Forecasting |
| ISSN: | 0169-2070 |
| Popis: | System-based cointegration methods have become popular tools for economic analysis and forecasting. However, the identification of structural relationships is often problematic. Using a theory-directed sequential reduction method suggested by Hall, Henry and Greenslade [Hall, S. G., Henry, S., & Greenslade, J. (2002). On the identification of cointegrated systems in small samples: A modelling strategy with an application to UK wages and prices. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 26 , 1517–1537], we estimate a vector error correction model of Hawaii tourism, where both demand and supply-side influences are important. We identify reasonable long-run equilibrium relationships, and Diebold–Mariano tests for forecast accuracy demonstrate satisfactory forecasting performance. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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