Multi‐diagnostic multi‐model ensemble forecasts of aviation turbulence
| Autor: | Philip G. Gill, Paul Williams, Luke N. Storer |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
Atmospheric Science
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Meteorology Ensemble forecasting Turbulence Computer science Aviation business.industry 0207 environmental engineering 02 engineering and technology Future climate 01 natural sciences Physics::Fluid Dynamics Range (statistics) Mountain wave 020701 environmental engineering business Physics::Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics 0105 earth and related environmental sciences |
| ISSN: | 1350-4827 |
| Popis: | Turbulence is one of the major weather hazards to aviation. Studies have shown that clear‐air turbulence may well occur more frequently with future climate change. Currently the two World Area Forecast Centres use deterministic models to generate forecasts of turbulence. It has been shown that the use of multi‐model ensembles can lead to more skilful turbulence forecasts. It has also been shown that the combination of turbulence diagnostics can also produce more skilful forecasts using deterministic models. This study puts the two approaches together to expand the range of diagnostics to include predictors of both convective and mountain wave turbulence, in addition to clear‐air turbulence, using two ensemble model systems. Results from a 12 month global trial from September 2016 to August 2017 show the increased skill and economic value of including a wider range of diagnostics in a multi‐diagnostic multi‐model ensemble. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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