Modeling vaccination campaigns and the Fall/Winter 2009 activity of the new A(H1N1) influenza in the Northern Hemisphere

Autor: Daniela Paolotti, Vittoria Colizza, Duygu Balcan, Bruno Gonçalves, Wouter Van den Broeck, Paolo Bajardi, Alessandro Vespignani, José J. Ramasco, Hao Hu, Nicola Perra, Michele Tizzoni, Chiara Poletto
Přispěvatelé: CPT - E5 Physique statistique et systèmes complexes, Centre de Physique Théorique - UMR 7332 (CPT), Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Université de Toulon (UTLN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Université de Toulon (UTLN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre de Physique Théorique - UMR 6207 (CPT), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Toulon (UTLN)-Université de Provence - Aix-Marseille 1-Université de la Méditerranée - Aix-Marseille 2, Complex Networks Lagrange Laboratory, Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation, Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Université de Toulon (UTLN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), School of Informatics, Indiana University, Indiana University [Bloomington], Indiana University System-Indiana University System, Université de la Méditerranée - Aix-Marseille 2-Université de Provence - Aix-Marseille 1-Université de Toulon (UTLN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2011
Předmět:
Zdroj: Emerging Health Threats Journal; Vol 2 (2009)
Emerging Health Threats
Emerging Health Threats, 2009, 2, pp.e11. ⟨10.3134/ehtj.09.011⟩
Emerging Health Threats Journal
ISSN: 1752-8550
DOI: 10.3134/ehtj.09.011⟩
Popis: The unfolding of pandemic influenza A(H1N1) for Fall 2009 in the Northern Hemisphere is still uncertain. Plans for vaccination campaigns and vaccine trials are underway, with the first batches expected to be available early October. Several studies point to the possibility of an anticipated pandemic peak that could undermine the effectiveness of vaccination strategies. Here we use a structured global epidemic and mobility metapopulation model to assess the effectiveness of massive vaccination campaigns for the Fall/Winter 2009. Mitigation effects are explored depending on the interplay between the predicted pandemic evolution and the expected delivery of vaccines. The model is calibrated using recent estimates on the transmissibility of the new A(H1N1) influenza. Results show that if additional intervention strategies were not used to delay the time of pandemic peak, vaccination may not be able to considerably reduce the cumulative number of cases, even when the mass vaccination campaign is started as early as mid-October. Prioritized vaccination would be crucial in slowing down the pandemic evolution and reducing its burden.
Paper: 19 Pages, 3 Figures. Supplementary Information: 10 pages, 8 Tables
Databáze: OpenAIRE