Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change
| Autor: | Schewe, J., Heinke, J., Gerten, D., Haddeland, I., Arnell, W., Clark, D.B., Dankers, R., Eisner, S., Fekete, B., Colón-González, F.J., Gosling, S.N., Kim, H., Liu, X, Masaki, Y., Portmann, F.T., Satoh, Y., Stacke, T., Tang, Q., Wada, Y., Wisser, D., Albrecht, T., Frieler, K., Piontek, F., Warszawski, L., Kabat, P., Landscape functioning, Geocomputation and Hydrology, FG Kusten, Rivieren, Global Change, Hydrologie, FG Landschapskunde, Gis, Hydrologie |
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| Rok vydání: | 2013 |
| Předmět: |
trends
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Natural resource economics Climate Change availability vulnerability Population 0207 environmental engineering Climate change Water supply 02 engineering and technology 01 natural sciences Earth System Science Water scarcity Water Supply 11. Sustainability future food-production Population Growth uncertainty 020701 environmental engineering education 0105 earth and related environmental sciences 2. Zero hunger education.field_of_study WIMEK Multidisciplinary Food security business.industry Global Climate Impacts: A Cross-Sector Multi-Model Assessment Special Feature scenarios Global warming Environmental resource management Temperature 1. No poverty Representative Concentration Pathways Models Theoretical bias correction river runoff Droughts Water resources 13. Climate action model description Leerstoelgroep Aardsysteemkunde Environmental science resources business Forecasting |
| Zdroj: | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 111(9). National Academy of Sciences Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 111 (2014) 9 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 111(9), 3245-3250 |
| ISSN: | 1091-6490 0027-8424 |
| Popis: | Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2 °C above present (approximately 2.7 °C above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15% of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (3 per capita per year) by another 40% (according to some models, more than 100%) compared with the effect of population growth alone. For some indicators of moderate impacts, the steepest increase is seen between the present day and 2 °C, whereas indicators of very severe impacts increase unabated beyond 2 °C. At the same time, the study highlights large uncertainties associated with these estimates, with both global climate models and GHMs contributing to the spread. GHM uncertainty is particularly dominant in many regions affected by declining water resources, suggesting a high potential for improved water resource projections through hydrological model development. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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