The global distribution and burden of dengue
| Autor: | Simon I. Hay, John M. Drake, Catherine L. Moyes, Anne G. Hoen, Osman Sankoh, Thomas W. Scott, Peter W. Gething, John S. Brownstein, Jeremy Farrar, Samir Bhatt, Jane P. Messina, Cameron P. Simmons, Andrew Farlow, Monica F. Myers, G. R. William Wint, Dylan B. George, Thomas Jaenisch, Oliver J. Brady |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2016 |
| Předmět: |
Databases
Factual Rain Dengue virus medicine.disease_cause Global Health Dengue fever Dengue Cohort Studies 0302 clinical medicine Risk Factors Global health 2. Zero hunger 0303 health sciences education.field_of_study Multidisciplinary Incidence Temperature 3. Good health Geography Infectious Diseases World Health Public Health Infection Quality Control medicine.medical_specialty General Science & Technology 030231 tropical medicine Population World Health Organization Article Vaccine Related 03 medical and health sciences Databases Rare Diseases Environmental health Biodefense MD Multidisciplinary medicine Humans education Dengue vaccine Health policy Factual 030304 developmental biology Tropical Climate Public health Prevention Urbanization Dengue Virus medicine.disease Virology Vector-Borne Diseases Emerging Infectious Diseases Good Health and Well Being 2009 Bolivian dengue fever epidemic |
| Zdroj: | Nature, vol 496, iss 7446 Publons Nature |
| ISSN: | 0028-0836 |
| DOI: | 10.1038/nature12060 |
| Popis: | Dengue is a systemic viral infection transmitted between humans by Aedes mosquitoes. For some patients, dengue is a life-threatening illness. There are currently no licensed vaccines or specific therapeutics, and substantial vector control efforts have not stopped its rapid emergence and global spread. The contemporary worldwide distribution of the risk of dengue virus infection and its public health burden are poorly known. Here we undertake an exhaustive assembly of known records of dengue occurrence worldwide, and use a formal modelling framework to map the global distribution of dengue risk. We then pair the resulting risk map with detailed longitudinal information from dengue cohort studies and population surfaces to infer the public health burden of dengue in 2010. We predict dengue to be ubiquitous throughout the tropics, with local spatial variations in risk influenced strongly by rainfall, temperature and the degree of urbanization. Using cartographic approaches, we estimate there to be 390 million (95% credible interval 284-528) dengue infections per year, of which 96 million (67-136) manifest apparently (any level of disease severity). This infection total is more than three times the dengue burden estimate of the World Health Organization. Stratification of our estimates by country allows comparison with national dengue reporting, after taking into account the probability of an apparent infection being formally reported. The most notable differences are discussed. These new risk maps and infection estimates provide novel insights into the global, regional and national public health burden imposed by dengue. We anticipate that they will provide a starting point for a wider discussion about the global impact of this disease and will help to guide improvements in disease control strategies using vaccine, drug and vector control methods, and in their economic evaluation. © 2013 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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