Validation of the preoperative score to predict postoperative mortality (POSPOM) in patients undergoing major emergency abdominal surgery
| Autor: | Dunja Kokotovic, Thea Helene Degett, Ismail Gögenur, Jakob Ohm Oreskov, Sarah Ekeloef, Simon Juul, Jakob Burcharth |
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| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: |
medicine.medical_specialty
Sports medicine Population Critical Care and Intensive Care Medicine Cohort Studies 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine medicine Humans Orthopedics and Sports Medicine In patient Hospital Mortality Postoperative Period education Aged Retrospective Studies 030222 orthopedics education.field_of_study Receiver operating characteristic business.industry Mortality rate 030208 emergency & critical care medicine Middle Aged Surgery Brier score ROC Curve Cohort Emergency Medicine Female business Abdominal surgery |
| Zdroj: | European journal of trauma and emergency surgery : official publication of the European Trauma Society. 47(6) |
| ISSN: | 1863-9941 |
| Popis: | Patients undergoing major emergency abdominal surgery have a high mortality rate. Preoperative risk prediction tools of in-hospital mortality could assist clinical identification of patients at increased risk and thereby aid clinical decision-making and postoperative pathways. The aim of this study was to validate the preoperative score to predict mortality (POSPOM) in a population of patients undergoing major emergency abdominal surgery. POSPOM was investigated in a retrospectively collected cohort of patients undergoing major emergency abdominal surgery at a Danish University Hospital from 2010 to 2016. Predicted in-hospital mortality by POSPOM was compared to observed in-hospital mortality. Calibration was assessed by Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit and calibration plot. Discrimination was assessed by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and accuracy was assessed with Brier score. The study included 979 patients (513 females) with a median age of 64 (IQR 55–77) years. The majority of patients underwent open surgery (94.5%). The observed in-hospital mortality rate was 10.9%. The estimated mean in-hospital mortality rate by POSPOM was 6.7%. POSPOM showed a good discrimination [AUC 0.82 (95% CI 0.78–0.85)] and an excellent accuracy [Brier score 0.09 (95% CI 0.07–0.10)]. However, a poor calibration was found (p |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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