Mathematical Model of COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics in South Korea: The Impacts of Travel Restrictions, Social Distancing, and Early Detection
| Autor: | Chunyoung Oh, Sunmi Lee, Eunjung Kim, Byul Nim Kim |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
0301 basic medicine
medicine.medical_specialty Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Early detection Bioengineering lcsh:Chemical technology law.invention lcsh:Chemistry 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine law basic reproduction number medicine Chemical Engineering (miscellaneous) lcsh:TP1-1185 030212 general & internal medicine Socioeconomics cumulative incidence mobility data Process Chemistry and Technology Social distance Public health social distancing Outbreak two-patch mathematical model Spatial heterogeneity COVID-19 transmission dynamics in South Korea travel restrictions 030104 developmental biology Transmission (mechanics) Geography lcsh:QD1-999 early diagnostic interventions Basic reproduction number |
| Zdroj: | Processes Volume 8 Issue 10 Processes, Vol 8, Iss 1304, p 1304 (2020) |
| ISSN: | 2227-9717 |
| DOI: | 10.3390/pr8101304 |
| Popis: | The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) poses a severe threat to public health officials all around the world. The early COVID-19 outbreak in South Korea displayed significant spatial heterogeneity. The number of confirmed cases increased rapidly in the Daegu and Gyeongbuk (epicenter), whereas the spread was much slower in the rest of Korea. A two-patch mathematical model with a mobility matrix is developed to capture this significant spatial heterogeneity of COVID-19 outbreaks from 18 February to 24 March 2020. The mobility matrix is taken from the movement data provided by the Korea Transport Institute (KOTI). Some of the essential patch-specific parameters are estimated through cumulative confirmed cases, including the transmission rates and the basic reproduction numbers (local and global). Our simulations show that travel restrictions between the epicenter and the rest of Korea effectively prevented massive outbreaks in the rest of Korea. Furthermore, we explore the effectiveness of several additional strategies for the mitigation and suppression of Covid-19 spread in Korea, such as implementing social distancing and early diagnostic interventions. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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